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It Was a Good Run - Universities

By rd6B follow rd6B   2020 Jan 8, 1:31pm 309 views   15 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


An excellent take of higher education:

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/it-was-a-good-run

I predict that 20% of colleges and universities will shut down or merge in the next 10 years, and probably more.

What comes next will pulverize nearly every institution of higher learning in the country, private and public.

The reason: demographics. Basically, an echo of the baby bust of the early seventies.... My small generation hatched a small generation, which is now making its way through college. Enrollment will drop 15% on average, on top of the eight-year correction that schools have already experienced. This may not seem like much, but finances at colleges and universities have deteriorated sharply, and many of them will not even be able to withstand a drop of a few percent.

The demand for higher education has been relatively inelastic, but demand elasticity is starting to set in. Today, 45% fewer 18- to 29-year-olds say going to college is “very important” than in 2013. A 45% drop in just seven years. I talk about it incessantly on my radio show. Higher education has become so expensive that it makes practically no sense for anyone, except as a luxury purchase for the idle rich.

The bull market was awesome. New academic buildings, new athletic facilities, new residence halls with swimming pools, climbing walls, and recreation facilities. Lots of administration and diversity staff. Ironically, the one cohort that utterly failed to benefit from the boom times was the professors, who are really the only people adding value and remain vastly underpaid. When the cuts come, they won’t come for the administration or the diversity staff. Academic programs will be the first to go, which raises some interesting questions about what the purpose of a university is.

A discussion on higher education would not be complete without a discussion of college football, which is a drain on resources in 99% of cases. Yes, Alabama is wildly profitable. Only a handful of football programs are, and hundreds of schools have tried to replicate what Alabama is doing. .... Some people complain that football is a source of alumni support, but it really isn’t. It’s popular among alumni, yes, but financially speaking, the vast majority of schools would be better off without it.

As an investor who came of age in a bear market, I tend to look for bear markets.... This one will be up there, with pretty profound economic effects. Colleges and universities employ a lot of people and in many cases are the lifeblood of a single town. You’ve probably noticed that the nicest buildings in your town are the academic buildings. Wait until they are all empty.
1   exfatguy   ignore (0)   2020 Jan 8, 2:40pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I pledge to support my kids through college if they choose to go, but only for majors that will net them a lucrative career. Engineering, business, law, medicine, finance, etc. If either wants to do Gender Studies then they're on their own. I'll also support them through a trade school so long as the trade is one with similarly decent job/career prospects.
2   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (2)   2020 Jan 8, 4:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Online education can replace a huge cgkhunk of current education.

And if feds ever stop throwing money away n it, stupid classes will disappear because no one would pay for garbage with their own money.
3   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2020 Jan 8, 4:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rd6B says
Ironically, the one cohort that utterly failed to benefit from the boom times was the professors, who are really the only people adding value and remain vastly underpaid. When the cuts come, they won’t come for the administration or the diversity staff. Academic programs will be the first to go, which raises some interesting questions about what the purpose of a university is.


4   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 8, 4:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rd6B says
The bull market was awesome. New academic buildings, new athletic facilities, new residence halls with swimming pools, climbing walls, and recreation facilities. Lots of administration and diversity staff. Ironically, the one cohort that utterly failed to benefit from the boom times was the professors, who are really the only people adding value and remain vastly underpaid. When the cuts come, they won’t come for the administration or the diversity staff. Academic programs will be the first to go, which raises some interesting questions about what the purpose of a university is.


It's the ones who slog it out trying to teach kids who really don't have the aptitude and motivation teaching English Composition 101 and Basic Algebra/Remedial Math to "underprivileged" Freshmen that are underpaid contractors.

Ironically, the ones who fart around all day on Twitter about Trump and the Heteronormative Oppression of society, are usually the ones with the pension, tenure, and big pay.
5   rd6B   ignore (1)   2020 Jan 8, 4:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fortwaynemobile says
Online education can replace a huge cgkhunk of current education.

Nope, kids who come through online classes learn nothing - this is my observation as they say "in trenches". May be computer programmers do not need face-to-face classes, but engineers, chemists, biologists etc need real classes/labs/etc. Tuition for "online education" is the same or higher than tuition for normal classes - remember that most of the cost is diversity administrators/football/fancy dorms/sports which does not go away if you switch to online education.

Fortwaynemobile says
And if feds ever stop throwing money away n it, stupid classes will disappear because no one would pay for garbage with their own money.

Agreed 100%
6   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2020 Jan 8, 4:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What a disaster. I'm kinda feeling sorry for Ken Burns here.
9   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2020 Jan 8, 5:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fortwaynemobile says
Online education can replace a huge chunk of current education.


True. There is a paradigm shift in education. A world of knowledge is a mouse click away.

There will still be a need for educators. The old style of the "sage on the stage", filling students with knowledge long enough for them to regurgitate it onto a test, will be replaced by the "guide on the side" leading the students through the breadth of knowledge of a profession and the skill to apply it. Hands on labs may eventually be replaced by virtual reality. Online learning is the future.

The top schools will continue to host the royalty but their days are numbered as the Internet equalizes access to knowledge, assuming we survive the current trend of fake news, contrived "science", and government corruption.

Not everyone should be a degreed professional. Technical schools and apprenticeships are much better than liberal arts colleges and X-studies degrees.
10   theoakman   ignore (0)   2020 Jan 8, 6:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Colleges easily have the ability to cut their tuition by 60%. They are entrenched in a system where they have nearly every kid going to school and they can't get out of their loans. As long as this persists, they are raking in billions. And...they are making it rain. Every school in NJ has literally doubled the amount of buildings they have with state of the art facilities. They are swimming in cash.

They are going to milk this scam for all its worth...and then at some point, go back to normal business if Congress ever grows balls and goes back to allowing bankruptcy on student loans.
11   HEYYOU   ignore (46)   2020 Jan 8, 6:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Universities,
"It's the price,stupid!"
12   rd6B   ignore (1)   2020 Jan 8, 6:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Onvacation says
There is a paradigm shift in education. A world of knowledge is a mouse click away.

Before, the world of knowledge was a trip to bookstore away. One could purchase a chemistry, physics, or engineering textbook second hand for a few dollars, work through it, and get the same or better knowledge than person could get in lecture. Did not happen very often, and "this time is different" never works.
13   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2020 Jan 8, 6:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rd6B says
May be computer programmers do not need face-to-face classes, but engineers, chemists, biologists etc need real classes/labs/etc.

True, at the current state of technology. A Star Trek holodeck will be a superior to a medical school biology lab. Eventually education will be like the matrix where Neo wakes up from a martial arts lesson and says,"I know Kungfu!"
14   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2020 Jan 8, 7:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEYYOU says
Universities,
"It's the price,stupid!"


Not Stupid. They are taking advantage of the easy loans to run up the prices. Evil.
15   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2020 Jan 8, 7:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Eventually education will be like the matrix where Neo wakes up from a martial arts lesson and says,"I know Kungfu!"

Then I will hack that program so a Neo-ess will wake up an eager and talented BJ giver.

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