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Doomsayers were very VERY wrong predicting the economy under Trump

By Patrick follow Patrick   2019 Dec 26, 6:37pm 600 views   32 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://thefederalist.com/2019/12/26/paul-krugman-said-markets-would-never-recover-from-trump-the-dow-is-up-10000-points-since-2016/

When President Trump was elected, Paul Krugman wrote, “[I]f the question is when the markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

Still, despite Trump’s critics on tax policy and Chinese tariffs and to the surprise of many in the establishment, the markets are doing just fine. Several days ago, the Dow Jones Index gained its 10,000th point since Trump was elected.

That index, which is made up of a handful of larger U.S. companies, is now over 28,000 points. A more accurate measure of market performance, the S&P 500 Index, is up more than 45 percent since Trump’s election Nov. 8, 2016.

Clearly, Krugman was wrong. One reason is that the Trump administration oversaw a tax reform package that cut U.S. corporate tax rates from 35 percent to 21 percent. Democrats smear Trump for cutting taxes to corporations, but during the Obama administration, there was bipartisan agreement that the U.S. corporate tax was too high — it’s just that nobody did anything about it.

The 35 percent rate, not even counting the extra taxes states tack on, was extremely uncompetitive internationally, including compared to France (about 30 percent), the United Kingdom (about 20 percent), and South Korea’s 22 percent tax at the time. Because of the higher tax in America, companies such as Medtronic took off to Ireland, which had a corporate tax rate of 12.5 percent.

Worse, the corporate tax was extremely unfair to companies that did all their business in America. The corporate tax of 35 percent was applied globally, but companies only owed the tax if they moved their cash to America. So companies with huge multinational operations used accounting tricks to book profits in foreign countries such as low-tax Ireland, while booking losses and other tax benefits in the United States. This needlessly cost the United States tax revenue.

Companies like General Electric paid next-to-nothing for years, while companies like UPS — which does most of its business in the United States — paid the full 35 percent.

Trump’s corporate tax reform didn’t fix all of this disparity, but it fixed much of it. And because the tax on the global profits of U.S. companies was repealed, companies now have a big incentive to move to the United States $1 trillion and counting that had been sitting overseas. Most important, tax reform increased the return on capital of money invested in America, which should lead to more production and investment in the United States over time.
1   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 26, 8:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How embarrassing
2   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 26, 10:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

They've just re-named the Dunning Kruger Effect the Dunning Krugman Effect.
3   Rin   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 26, 11:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ever since those bitches went crazy protesting in Boston & NYC, I'd lost all respect for the Dems.

https://patrick.net/post/1301811/2017-01-23-election-bitches-read-my-lips-the-vote-of-women-in-boston-and-nyc-don-t-matter
4   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 27, 1:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
They've just re-named the Dunning Kruger Effect the Dunning Krugman Effect.


Brilliant!

Too bad nobody will get it, because that really nails the situation perfectly!
5   TrumpingTits   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 27, 4:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Clearly, Krugman was wrong


Krugman has a history of usually being wrong. There was even a group of fact checker that called themselves The Krugman Truth Squad that constantly issued fact check corrections on Krugman's bullshit.
6   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 27, 4:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The idea that Paul Krugman even has a degree in economics is laughable.

I've told this story before but, when he lived in Princeton, I lived near him. I used to plow driveways during snow season. When we went to his neighborhood, he always had a service plow his driveway. Then, an hour later, he would have his wife snap a photo of him shoveling the last remnants of the snow and post it on the blog about how he was done shoveling. In hindsight, I should have just knocked on his door and offered to do it for 50% of what the other guy was doing. Then, call him out online.
7   HEYYOU   ignore (46)   2019 Dec 27, 5:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

And Impeached did it all while he added to the debt.

Some can't understand math.
8   marcus   ignore (12)   2019 Dec 27, 5:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

:
theoakman says
The idea that Paul Krugman even has a degree in economics is laughable.


Yeah, you can get a M.I.T. phd economics when you supersize your soft drink at the Cambridge Mass McDonalds. Summa cum laude economics degree from Yale ? Heck, one time I got of those in a box of Cracker Jacks.

If you're going to make predictions in economics, you're going to be wrong sometimes. In the days after 2016 election, when he made his worst prediction, it was probably before realizing that the "fiscally conservative" (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH !!) congress was going to let him so such radical tax cuts and extreme deficit spending during a growth cycle.

You guys act like it's free. But you wouldn't be if Hillary had a good economy with half the deficits. All we would hear is the need to reduce spending. Such hypocrisy.
10   Rin   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 27, 7:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
supersize your soft drink at the Cambridge Mass McDonalds


I was just there on Christmas Eve ... Twin City Plaza, the only McDonalds which is 7x24x365 in the neighborhood.
11   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 1:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
You guys act like it's free. But you wouldn't be if Hillary had a good economy with half the deficits. All we would hear is the need to reduce spending. Such hypocrisy.

This undoubtedly would not have happened. Deficits would have sky rocketed as Hillary probably would have started a useless war somewhere. This is one area most people are okay with Trump weather they want to admit it or not.
12   Patrick   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 28, 8:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Hillary probably would have started a useless war somewhere


Yup, I have no doubt that Hillary would have immediately started a shooting war with Iran because that's what the Saudis want.
13   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 8:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Didn't Krugman spend 2009-2016 writing a article after article about how deficits didn't matter and how Obama's underwhelming shovel not so ready programs saved the world?

Krugman also said a recession was going to happen because of tax cuts and deregulation.
14   The_Weeping_Ayatollah   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 9:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JerryR says
he is at a 4x higher pace of drone strikes than Obama presumably with 4 times the civilian casualties.


Source?
15   just_dregalicious   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 28, 12:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well I think that's just great. I think he should do more, way more. You start blowing everything up wars end quickly and more economically. His threat to kill 10 million people in Afghanistan via MOABs has the Taliban at the table. It worked with Japan and despite the brainwashing the media has run over us it's how we won (yes won) the war in Vietnam. We carpet bombed the fuck out of them and they said, "Okay, we give, just give us a month to build a plane out of parts we can scrounge up and we'll meet you in Paris for the Accord". <- It was the fucking democrats that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by later passing laws saying we could provide no more support for the South that 'lost' the war.

I'd just rather not see any American troops on the ground unless they don't have to follow the gay ass rules of engagement. That's how we get killed.
16   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 1:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Deficits would have sky rocketed as Hillary probably would have started a useless war somewhere


JerryR says
Really? I'm not ok with more troops in the middle East than before Trump took office or the fact that he is at a 4x higher pace of drone strikes than Obama presumably with 4 times the civilian casualties. All while sucking Saudi dick

Read the words chief. READ. Jesus. NEW WARS buttercup. Hillary would have likely sent more troops than Trump AND opened two new fronts in some other shitholes. You're being intentionally obtuse and trolling though, I get it. Not sure why I continue to bite.
17   marcus   ignore (12)   2019 Dec 28, 2:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Hillary would have


Classic. Talking about "what Hillary would have done." It would be a different world for sure. Maybe less different than we think though in many ways.

If it would have meant hundreds of billions lower annual defiicts, and an increased chance of a recession sooner but less chance of a bigger one later, I would be okay with that.

But hey, we have the self proclaimed "king of debt" as President, what did we expect ?
18   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 3:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
If it would have meant hundreds of billions lower annual defiicts, and an increased chance of a recession sooner but less chance of a bigger one later, I would be okay with that.

It was a race between Hillary and Trump.... So yup, logical comparison in my world. And just stop, there's not a chance in hell Hillary would have reduced annual deficits. You know how many people she had to pay off? I don't, but it wasn't going to reduce the deficit or overall debt with the $$$$ she had to payback for the BS speeches. Even you would have to admit her and Billy's fees were payments for future contracts and business under the assumption she'd get elected. To say otherwise is to be wantonly ignorant.

This is politics 101. Trump will get paid millions and so will his kids after 2024. It's the American way, just look at the Clinton's, Bush's and now Obama (Biden). This isn't unique.
19   tovarichpeter   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 28, 3:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-twitter-obama-jesus-christmas-god-tweets-a9262151.html


President Donald Trump gives a thumbs-up after arriving for Christmas Eve dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Dec. 24, 2019. Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Donald Trump, is pictured in foreground. . (Andrew Harnik/AP.)
By Heather Long
December 28, 2019 at 7:00 AM EST
U.S. stocks are closing out a terrific year and President Trump loves it. He’s bragged about the stock market hitting record highs six times this week alone on Twitter.
On Friday, he boasted “Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past U.S. presidents,” and he vowed that the “BEST IS YET TO COME!” Trump is making the economy and stock market a key focus on his reelection campaign. He often likes to claim this is the “best” or an “unprecedented” scenario, even when that is not the case.
While the stock market has performed well under Trump, it is not an unprecedented performance. Trump’s stock market returns still lag behind Obama and Clinton at this point in their first terms.
20   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 28, 3:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Krugman's appeals to authority unfortunately use himself as the authority.

Pure fake news bullshit, for whatever way the LibbyFuck winds blow.
21   Rin   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 28, 4:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

just_dregalicious says
despite the brainwashing the media has run over us it's how we won (yes won) the war in Vietnam. We carpet bombed the fuck out of them and they said, "Okay, we give, just give us a month to build a plane out of parts we can scrounge up and we'll meet you in Paris for the Accord". <- It was the fucking democrats that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by later passing laws saying we could provide no more support for the South that 'lost' the war.


Here's my piece on that subject matter ...

https://patrick.net/post/1329341?offset=0#comment-1638081

I'd written about this some time back.

The US did not need to keep a high troop presence after "Vietnamization". In fact, if arms were regularly re-supplied, the South Vietnamese could have held off the north on their own but rationing kicked in soon after the US army left ...

https://patrick.net/post/1325271?offset=40#comment-1598886

"I knew a South Vietnamese officer who was among the lucky ones to get out before the '75 collapse and later settled down in the Boston area.

His experience was that by mid '74, the average soldier had up to 3 magazines per week vs the usual of 7-8 when the US army was still there prior to the closure of "Vietnamization".

In effect, he echoed let's call it the Republican spiel, that the South was reduced to a poor man's war whereas the North was armed to the teeth. And the North did take their time, throughout '74, testing the South incrementally, making sure that they didn't have enough counter firepower before the grand offensive in the spring.

So I'm sure when 'rationing' kicked in, the ones who already had the pre-existing armory, didn't share it and thus, the fact that funds were getting cut from above, did abet the collapse of the South's defenses."
22   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (49)   2019 Dec 28, 4:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Nixon should have equipped the south with tactical nukes and nerve gas.

Fucking Hanoi goes up in four big blasts and the survivors end their lives gushing their guts up would have sent a message that ALL! FUCKING! COMMUNISTS! WILL FUCKING DIE! FUCKING! DIE! AS LONG! AS FREEDOM! REIGNS!

We should be doing as much for fucking HONG! KONG! - that and Statehood.

EVERY LAST FUCKING HOUSEHOLD IN HONG KONG should be equipped with tactical nukes and a ton of sarin gas. PRC makes a move, 500 million COMMIE! CUNTS! FUCKING! DIE!

DIE! DIE! DIE! COMMIE! CUNTS!
23   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 5:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JerryR says
The use of buttercup is a personal attack.

Holy shit have times changed. Mark it as personal then, I don't give a shit. That's on you, no one else has to this point. So apparently not personal unless you think so........

JerryR says
Old war new war who gives a fuck? If more troops are in harm's way that's what matters.

Great opinion. New wars would require more troops. Not complicated. Not even sure where you're going at this point. Hillary got beat by a scummy NYC real estate developer and you're still trying to defend her? Especially over her historical hawkish stances? You've got to be kidding. And that's not an opinion.

JerryR says
Yup, neither do I.

Trump may suck as a businessman if that's going to be your next point. But he didn't make his living in politics. It's unfortunate some don't understand the political world, but they're all corrupt. You act as if there's an alternative and it's hilarious. Quicksand is unforgiving.
24   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 5:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Leftists are so radical, they're unhinged at deviant views from probably the most moderate person on the board.

We saw Hillary as a Senator and then as a Secretary of State. Her handpicked henchwoman, Victoria Nuland, as well. She raised almost double the cash than Trump, almost all of it from Wall Street and International/Multinational Corporations. They liked her and her history and wanted her to continue.

Did anybody read her 6 figure Brazil and Citigroup Bank speech transcripts published by Wikileaks? Damning.

Wars, Regime Changes, and Corporate Socialism was her thing.
25   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 28, 5:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
It's unfortunate some don't understand the political world, but they're all corrupt.


My take is very different: The current crop of Pols and their staffers would have been made mincemeat in the NY Real Estate Market of the 80s and 90s.

Guys like Vindman and Ciaramella and Schiff wouldn't last a week in that environment. Hell, Leona Helmsley would have eaten them as an hour d'oeuvre
26   tovarichpeter   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 28, 7:28pm     ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Fed Reserve says Trump’s tariffs have been disastrous for economy
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-trade-war-china-tariffs-1479462
28   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 29, 9:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You really want to post this based on end-of-year highs that always occur to ensure CEO bonus's are paid? Try posting in January next time after the correction that happens every year.

Also, the ability the print money != wealth, it = inflation.
29   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2019 Dec 29, 9:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says

If it would have meant hundreds of billions lower annual defiicts,


With an active war in Iran?

WE always bring up Hillary because that was our alternative. Many more will vote for Trump in 2020 than voted against Hillary in 2016. We dodged a bullet.
30   just_dregalicious   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 29, 8:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

tovarichpeter says
Fed Reserve says Trump’s tariffs have been disastrous for economy


Federal Reserve has been disastrous for the economy.

Also, the dislikes aren't from me. You speak sometimes these days so I know you're not a bot.
31   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 29, 10:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

just_dregalicious says
Also, the dislikes aren't from me. You speak sometimes these days so I know you're not a bot.

Never understood dislikes. Don't get notifications from them and if you have a problem with something just get it out there. I think I've called him TovBot before, but I do appreciate it when he comments or gives a quote from links when posting (constructive criticism, not a personal attack).

Patrick can check the logs (if possible) but I don't think I've disliked a comment on this site in fuck.... holy shit... almost 15 years (lurker before commenter).
32   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 30, 9:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Another thing Democrats were wrong on:

In September, Democrat Joe Biden attacked TX Gov Greg Abbott for signing a law that let lawful gun owners carry guns into places of worship

Biden: "it's just absolutely irrational. It's totally irrational"

Today, a good guy with a gun saved countless lives inside a Texas church pic.twitter.com/qeK31Bvm84

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) December 29, 2019

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