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Former Fed and Treasury Staffer Predicts collapse of Stocks and Bonds

By NuttBoxer follow NuttBoxer   2019 Dec 12, 8:09am 1,235 views   54 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Just a reminder, this is NOT what a successful economy looks like. As long as we are under central bankers, boom/bust is our only option within the system.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repocalypse-20-deck-turn-repo-rates-are-blowing-out?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge:+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

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15   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 12, 7:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Run would buy them all.

Goran_K says
I really want them to make perfected versions of Rin's sex bots.

I'd invest lots of money into selling those.
16   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 12, 7:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Am I doing it too much? 2 years worth of income in savings for rainy day. I have stocks too, but just afraid to put more.

I need guys like Gorman to help me manage my money.

NuttBoxer says
Long term, metals, ones that are recognizable and don't carry high premiums. Short term, three months expenses in cash. I don't like gambling, and have a family to support, so no stocks, bonds, or any other asset that only has value in paper. A small business or land are also good investment.

Sorry, nothing groundbreaking.
17   Patrick   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 12, 7:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
higher labor participation, more money for people to spend on shit=higher corporate profits=stocks rise


This is really key.

When the poor get money, they spend it pronto. This boosts the economy from the bottom up.

When the rich get money, they throw it on the pile in the basement of the mansion. This causes the economy to stagnate.

Trump has been great at creating jobs for poor US citizens, and this is helping to drive the whole economy.
18   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 12, 7:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

:
@Nuttboxer Thanks for following this and keeping us updated. In a previous life I followed this stuff somewhat. I don't claim to understand it though. Far more so now than then.

Most people have no clue how strange these times are relative to interest bearing securities and interest rates, which of course have EVERYTHING to do with what's happening in the financial market.

Patrick says
Trump has been great in creating jobs for poor US citizens, and this is helping to drive the whole economy.


Hahahaha, ohh Patrick. You Trump fan boys crack me up. Truly. You so desperately want Trump to have credit for what's happening in the financial market. I'll watch you sprinting in the other direction if they crash. Not to worry, there are people with predesigned arguments that are ready to go.

AS for jobs. I already posted the labor participation graphs.
20   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 12, 8:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Fortwaynemobile says
I have stocks too, but just afraid to put more.


Just put what you have now into a DRIP and forget about it.

As for adding new stocks, I'd only buy dividend ones where their price action has already been beaten down to the point where in effect, a market correction wouldn't have the same impact as a stock which was riding high from earlier on. So for example, my local energy company, Eversource, has never seen any technical correction for much of the prior decade so while it still gives out a healthy dividend, I'd rather wait for a general market correction before I start buying in because it'll allow P/Es to contrast while at the same time, giving out a higher dividend on a per share basis.
21   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
And it's not about reading the article. I read your link here. It's a fluffed up resume.


So I'm unclear. Did you work at the Fed? Treasury? One of the biggest banks in the world? Are you a trusted by your peers in the financial markets as an expert on these matters?

You guys can dismiss all you want, but none of you have the experience, or the insight of this guy. Not even close. I played a little ball in High School, but I don't begin to assume I know more than Jordan.
22   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Fortwaynemobile says
Am I doing it too much? 2 years worth of income in savings for rainy day.


I meant cash on hand, not in a bank.
23   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
And it's not about reading the article. I read your link here. It's a fluffed up resume. My resume makes me looks like the first born of Jesus as does every resume if you know how to write one. If people think Realtors are bull shitter's then I'd take your link with a grain of salt and financial services and bankers are an order of magnitude worse.


I guess he’s sold on this guy. I’ve learned from experience that people usually don’t buy a car or an ideology. They buy a salesman and then sign for the car or accept the theory or cult as fact with a belief akin to faith. The less they understand about a subject, the greater this tendency is to attach themselves to an authority figure and blindly follow his every advice.
Seen it from Kiyosaki to Kangen water to Açaí berry juice to various cults, to financial advisors, to realtors, and all stripes of salesmen. Once a person has “bought,” you can’t convince them there is a problem with the merchandise. They’re too invested... too close to the decision. It’s no longer a referendum on the product but on their one judgement and self worth.
24   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 12, 8:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Also, gold is holding the range between $1400/oz and $1500/oz, which in effect indicates that the nervousness of central banks from "holding currencies stable" has been tested.

Remember, gold broke $400/oz back in 2002 and never looked back. It's already found support at 300% of its bear market peak circa $1200/oz for a very long time. Contrast that with medical care inflation which is up only 70% since 2002 and that's clearly a market segment which has lost control on its expenditures.

https://www.halfhill.com/inflation_js.html
25   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Trump has been great at creating jobs for poor US citizens, and this is helping to drive the whole economy.


I don't see this in San Fran with record homeless, or in LA. I never saw it in the blue collar neighborhoods in South Bay San Diego that steadily declined over the years. I don't see it in my own financials, which despite steady pay raises, many above 3%, have done little for my bottom line due to rising costs(something you guys never talk about).

A president has as much to do with the economy as Polar Bear selling sunscreen. As long as a central bank controls the money supply, we are permanently fucked. Think I'm exaggerating, look at the value of the dollar since 1913. But I'm talking to a wall(partisan politics believers), one that thinks because it has two sides, one side is different from the other. Guess what? It's the same fucking wall.

You guys called '08, great. But you failed to understand the root cause, the driver behind the collapse. It's bigger than house loans, otherwise it wouldn't happen again.
26   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 12, 8:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

In addition, for gold, one needs to factor out the parabola of 1978 where it spiked from $190/oz to $850/oz prior to the crash.

In reality, gold never saw $190/oz ever again even after Volcker put the brakes on stagflation.
27   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 12, 8:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I've been listening to Danielle DiMartino Booth lately.

If I'm going to listen to someone tell me I'm fucked I'd rather hear it from a Texan with a great rack.

28   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
I guess he’s sold on this guy.


Never heard of the guy before today, and made it pretty clear I don't gamble in markets. Just know he's more into this shit than anyone here will ever be. But I understand, you need to believe you're choices are keeping you safe, and you won't lose everything like so many did in '08.

If the economy is so great, why is it no one can afford to retire anymore?
29   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 12, 8:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Also, gold is holding the range between $1400/oz and $1500/oz, which in effect indicates that the nervousness of central banks from "holding currencies stable" has been tested.


Actually it means they've pumped enough to keep it at bay. But they always lose that game, and resistance is already starting to crumble for the next leg up(big one). Think of that 300% as more of a permanent bottom.
30   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 12, 8:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
Actually it means they've pumped enough to keep it at bay. But they always lose that game, and resistance is already starting to crumble for the next leg up(big one). Think of that 300% as more of a permanent bottom.


I've simply kept my original position which was at the $400/oz mark and never sold. I'm not a gold bug.

If a/o when the central bankers and I don't just mean the Fed but also, BoE, ECB, etc, lose control [ as a group ] and then I'll be back in. For now, however, they have the system setup so that PMs do not look like another long term commodities play.
31   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 13, 8:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
So I'm unclear. Did you work at the Fed? Treasury? One of the biggest banks in the world? Are you a trusted by your peers in the financial markets as an expert on these matters?

I wasn't making a comparison of myself to Zoltan (author of the OP link - weird name). The link you posted in comment 12 was pure trash in the sense that it was fluffing like all resumes are. As Rin and others have pointed out you can go to Harvard or Yale and still be a complete dipshit. You can be on a Ukrainian energy company board with zero experience and make $80k/mo. You can work for the biggest bank in the world and that doesn't mean shit. So many bull shit artist get into high positions. Hell it's probably a requirement to have that skill... look at POTUS.

I don't give blind faith to anyone, especially in the financial services. Depending on their reach and influence, there is ALWAYS a motive if they're writing about a prediction or where the markets might go. Ultimately the guy is trying to make more money. He's writing about where he WANTS the markets to go to make more money. He can be wrong and all but probably 50 people will even care about his prediction.

NuttBoxer says
I played a little ball in High School, but I don't begin to assume I know more than Jordan.

Not a good example. That's physical achievement. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people that "know" basketball better than Jordan. Hell, look at the team he owns. Massive success on the court.....NOT! This is why achievements don't always translate. Why the top sales person would fail owning the company he works for. For some it can, but it's not a guarantee. Hence why I'm not putting any eggs in the basket of a NY Fed staffer who is given some made up label (usual VP of something) at a bank that 6,000 other employees probably have the same label.
32   Brd6   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 13, 8:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I frankly do not understand jack shit about economy any more. I was raised not to have any debt, to live below my means, etc, but that is out of fashion these days, both with respect to individuals and countries. I do not get how one can go into debt at war-time levels and all is fine and dandy. I do not get how stocks can rise while 50+% of country is fucked. I do not get how 80% of crap we buy is from China and everyone seems to be fine with that, and how our economy can survive. I see @NuttBoxer's point very well, but counter-argument is that money-printing and debt-monetizing crap is now in its 3rd decade and apparently has had little major effects. May be it is different this time, who knows.
33   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 8:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
I've simply kept my original position which was at the $400/oz mark and never sold. I'm not a gold bug.


So you really just have another stock. Kind of defeats the purpose if you're hedging against collapse.
34   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 8:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
I don't give blind faith to anyone, especially in the financial services.


There's overwhelming evidence to support his position, and he's not the first one to say this. It's a matter of denial for you, and to justify it, you pull out the strawman of there is no ultimate truth.

WookieMan says
Not a good example.


It is, your just not familiar with the sport.
35   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 8:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rd6B says
but counter-argument is that money-printing and debt-monetizing crap is now in its 3rd decade and apparently has had little major effects. May be it is different this time, who knows.


Or we're just following Rothbard's boom/bust cycle, with each bust getting bigger and bigger. You can put off payment, but it doesn't go away. It just keeps getting bigger, and the reckoning more devastating when it arrives.
37   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 13, 9:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I don’t understand gold. It’s more volatile then equities but it underperforms.

The problem today is bonds suck and there’s no good alternative. I don’t think gold is a good alternative. Dividend stocks are too expensive and they are too correlated to equities. Maybe you got to look into some of these new types of investment like crowd funded real estate or fractional art. But these don’t have track records and your money is locked up.

I still have about 15% bonds but I’m seriously thinking going to 100% equities with a large cash reserve (3 years living expenses). When the next recession happens invest the cash reserves (1/3 per year) until the market recovery then re-build the reserves.
38   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 13, 10:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
There's overwhelming evidence to support his position, and he's not the first one to say this. It's a matter of denial for you, and to justify it, you pull out the strawman of there is no ultimate truth.

Please explain exactly what I'm in denial of? The source you are using is a fictitious movie characters name (which is childish, even if we know the actual person) and he cites Zoltan, some big wig banker type that we should just believe? Zoltan looks like he's 35, so experience isn't on his side. I've read the articles and the bio from the one source you've provided. If anyone is in such poor financial shape that they make financial decisions based on one source, there's a reason they got there in the first place.

NuttBoxer says
WookieMan says
Not a good example.


It is, your just not familiar with the sport.

You make a lot of assumptions about people. All I've stated is you're bringing one source to the table, which is a completely valid point. You then post again from the same source. Some people want to believe something so much that they are drawn towards what fulfills their bias. It's human nature.

You've ignored the point that being the best basketball player in the world at one time, means nothing when you have to put together a basketball team and have them perform. Zoltan could have been top of class at everything, it doesn't mean he's actually smart regarding the topic being discussed. That's my point. Bring me 20 Zoltan's and maybe I'd change my point of view. As we stand we have one source, using a fictitious name, citing one other person. Basically nothing.
39   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 11:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rd6B says
I frankly do not understand jack shit about economy any more. I was raised not to have any debt, to live below my means, etc, but that is out of fashion these days, both with respect to individuals and countries. I do not get how one can go into debt at war-time levels and all is fine and dandy. I do not get how stocks can rise while 50+% of country is fucked. I do not get how 80% of crap we buy is from China and everyone seems to be fine with that, and how our economy can survive. I see @NuttBoxer's point very well, but counter-argument is that money-printing and debt-monetizing crap is now in its 3rd decade and apparently has had little major effects. May be it is different this time, who knows.


I was exactly in your shows about 8 years ago. After correctly predicting the downturn and recession, I was expecting house prices here to crash to at least half price, but the prices were stubborn and then only dropped like 25% before a hard floor was found and they started rising again. This without a good recovery and many people still out of work.
Iwog told me that economic fundamentals did not apply in this situation because of several things:
1)The wealthy are heavily invested in everything, especially real estate, and they refuse to see those investments crash.
2)The wealthy write the rules
3)The wealthy are going to buy up extra housing so it doesn’t drop further.

As predicted, this is exactly what happened, and prices rose very very quickly again. I barely got into the market before they rose a good 10% over bottom!

This taught me a fundamental truth about the economy and government: the wealthy have more money and government influence than they will ever need to ENSURE that things go their way with respect to their investments. They behave like oligarchs, beholden to nobody but each other, and government serves their interests.

They weren’t served well by a rapid job/wage recovery (cheap labor is great for massive profit taking) and so we had the longest and slowest recovery in history under eight long years of Obama.

So my strategy since then is to invest alongside the wealthy, and watch my assets grow as theirs do. I have no power to challenge them, so I invest like they do and reap the crumbs.
40   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 13, 11:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
They behave like oligarchs, beholden to nobody but each other, and government serves their interests.


Yes and let me add that to this tidbit below ...


Rin says
I've simply kept my original position which was at the $400/oz mark and never sold. I'm not a gold bug.

If a/o when the central bankers and I don't just mean the Fed but also, BoE, ECB, etc, lose control [ as a group ] and then I'll be back in. For now, however, they have the system setup so that PMs do not look like another long term commodities play.


NuttBoxer says
So you really just have another stock. Kind of defeats the purpose if you're hedging against collapse.


Since precious metals are limited in the way they corrolate to commodities, their price action is very much a sentient of lost confidence in central banking. And yes, each generation will have another crisis/inflection point where gold will go up by another 200-300% as a counterweight to the lose of confidence. But still that's only $5000/oz during the next "doom & gloom" wave.

With that said, a lot of the primary assets of the world are owned by rich ppl and thus, it's highly unlikely that as a collective, meaning the Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, etc, will go to hell in a basket simultaneously, which that would in effect, eliminate all business transactions worldwide at once. Instead, they'll be a confidence crisis, the smart money will add some gold, platinum, etc, to their portfolios and then, when the crisis abates via co-coordination of the central banks, then a new PMs plateau will be reached.

The only time the gold bugs got it right was at the 2002-4 $400/oz gold price breakout but at the same time, so did I, because it just came out of a 20 year bear market channel.
41   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 13, 11:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Or to put another way, spend your money on assets instead of consumption.

We can argue about if gold is a good investment or if equities are about to crash, but at the end of the day, assets always have intrinsic value so you’re going to be okay as long as you don’t freak out and sell during a low point.
42   clambo   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 13, 12:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme, my pal bought a shitload of silver at $45+ dollars/once, he's so far underwater there is no way up in his lifetime.
43   RC2006   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 12:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Globalist care most about power and wealth. They might take a hit to wealth and hit economy to get Trump out they will make it back and don't care about the damage they do.
44   NoCoupForYou   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 12:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
ignoreme, my pal bought a shitload of silver at $45+ dollars/once, he's so far underwater there is no way up in his lifetime.


Fiat! Currency! Will! Collapse! Gold is $30k/oz! Silver to $5000/oz! You'll see, disbeliever! Muh Axioms are always right! Start you Acme Gold IRA today!
45   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 13, 1:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
Long term, metals, ones that are recognizable and don't carry high premiums.


I dunno, Boxer. Let's say your Dark Fantasy comes to life, and our country, which has more firearms than people, goes Mad Max. Or goes Venezuela.

How you gonna use your store of value in gold? You sure you will have a buyer, who won't rob you? Are you sure the government won't sanction it, like they already did in 1934? (In that case, you will only be able to sell to a criminal whom you TRUST).

How you gonna get a gallon of gasoline, a few bullets for your weapon, or a loaf of bread with your gold bullion?

If you make a "legal" sale and manage not to get scammed or worse while doing so, all your profit will be taxed at "collectible" rate.

Like Rin, I built up a position back in the day, when I reckoned the purchasing power ought to have been around 600 per ounce and it was trading for less, then creeping up. Took my last position at 700-750 ish.


Then I spent a year or so reading up on the Weimar inflation, and recently read about Mad Max stuff unfolding in Venezuela. Your gold is not practical in these situations.

I have a friend who fled Indochina as a kid with his family after the Communists took Saigon. These folks, long generations of ethnic Chinese in Laos, were fabulously wealthy. They fled with only their clothes and the oodles gold bullion they could carry with them. They had just enough to pay the pirates ("boat people") to smuggle them to somewhere where they got picked up and transported to refugee camp in Hong Kong. I think they were probably robbed of most of it. I suppose, your gold might be practical in that situation. Surely your guns will not be as you will be out gunned.
46   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 13, 1:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
Muh Axioms are always right!

Muh ratio is currently at 87:1. Wish I had picked up some silver at the end of May (when silver was sub $15) or June when the ratio popped above 90:1. Still don't have the cojones like Ducky did to go physical.
47   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 13, 2:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
ignoreme, my pal bought a shitload of silver at $45+ dollars/once

There's literally about one week when that was true: April 21-28, 2011. The Gold to Sliver ratio was 35:1 (yikes). At that point, the price of Gold and Sliver corrected to get a more reasonable ratio.
48   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 13, 2:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

B.A.C.A.H. says
I have a friend who fled Indochina as a kid with his family after the Communists took Saigon. These folks, long generations of ethnic Chinese in Laos, were fabulously wealthy. They fled with only their clothes and the oodles gold bullion they could carry with them. They had just enough to pay the pirates ("boat people") to smuggle them to somewhere where they got picked up and transported to refugee camp in Hong Kong. I think they were probably robbed of most of it. I suppose, your gold might be practical in that situation. Surely your guns will not be as you will be out gunned.


Yes B.A.C.A.H, you hit it on the nail.

In fact, these ppl would have been better off, if they had their 'gold accounts' in the Western Australian mint or the Royal Canadian one, if they wanted to start over in their new homelands instead of carrying it around feeding human traffickers a/o pirates.

What the OP envisions, is a total and complete collapse of the 1st world, western-like economy nations, including the USA, Canada, UK, western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, etc. Sorry, but that's highly unlikely as PRC isn't going to be the home of all the economic refugees from the west nor will India/Pakistan, the middle east, Brazil/Spanish Latin America, or Africa.
49   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 13, 2:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Normally debt is a bet on the future. Low rates mean people trust the future.
Now globally, debts are going through the roof: $240 TRILLIONS.
Does it mean people actually trust the future to actually pay back these debts? Does it mean we are about to see an economic boom?
Worse: it can't stop, otherwise the economy implodes.
Where is THIS runaway train going? I don't know but probably nowhere we want to be. This doesn't mean we're boat people waiting to happen.
But it does mean you want some wealth not bound to the banking system & governments.

50   Chiromancer   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 13, 5:03pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says
I meant cash on hand, not in a bank.


Like in a mattress?

So you believe cash will have value if things get so bad that the banks collapse?

Seems to me with that scenario all bets are off, farm land and weaponry to protect it are your best investments.
51   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 13, 6:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NuttBoxer says

I meant cash on hand, not in a bank.


Good idea to have some.

We can learn from banking crises that have already happened in recent history. Iceland. Cypress. Greece. And even in the US with some failures, - IndyMac and others: The government makes a bank holiday. Then, daily withdrawal limits for a time. Maybe even a long time. Good to have some ready cash for such an occurence, which has happened and will happen again.

As long as you stay under the insurance limit, your deposit will be there. Just may not be able to get it all, right away. Now... supposing there's a systemic crisis... (like in Iceland)... once the capital controls are lifted, your deposit will be there.... but... like in Iceland, the purchasing power of it might be a whole lot lower.
52   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 13, 7:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Low rates mean people trust the future.


Interest rates are typically considered equal to inflation expectations plus some real interest rate. What I believe we've had since 2008 is deflationary or anti-inflationary pressure due to the amount of debt out there. Debt has to be paid back - and the nature of the market place is that it won't easily allow it to be paid back in dollars that are worth far less than the dollars that were borrowed (at least not in an orderly fashion).

You might say, then how do we have such upward pressure on financial assets if inflation is so low ? The short answer is that financial assets as well as many real assets such as real estate (that can be financed with low interest rate debt) often move inversely to interest rates. That is low interest rates are good for financial assets, becasue for one thing, financial assets compete with interest bearing securities for where money (all that excess capital) gets invested (or parked). For another thing, low cost money is borrowed to trade financial assets or to invest short term, or long term in the case of real estate. Ever heard of the so called "carry trade?" The term used to apply to Japanese yen borrowed on the cheap to invest in whatever that could earn more than the low interest cost. But in recent years there was a period when US interest rates were close to zero. Even now, interest rates are probably close to negative, if you subtract out the inflation rate.

Bottom line: I'm not so sure that low interest rates so much mean that people trust the future as it means that interest rates can't easily go up in an environment of excessive debt. Because if they did, it would mean one of two things. Either inflation has finally kicked in as Trump and others want it to (meaning debt can be paid back in cheaper dollars).
OR real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation) are very very high, which would be death to the economy.

Is it possible that the problems that led to 2008 have not yet been solved ?
53   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (4)   2019 Dec 13, 9:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
Fiat! Currency! Will! Collapse! Gold is $30k/oz! Silver to $5000/oz! You'll see, disbeliever! Muh Axioms are always right! Start you Acme Gold IRA today!


I wonder what happened to the chick who used to argue with wookie and pumped bitcoin. It's been trending down every since then.
54   Misc   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 14, 2:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It is perfectly reasonable to have the stock market appreciate 25% in a year with a 4% increase in earnings and a 2%ish GPD growth rate. This while there has been more selling of equities by general public than buying because the Boomers are selling to fund their retirements, while the Millenials are buying fractional shares (the latest thing).

… or …

there could just be a massive increase in debt purchasing the assets.

However, I don't see what could stop this trend in the short term, but it could collapse overnight.

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