patrick.net

NuttBoxer says

More citizens have been leaving than entering for years. Keep in mind that just because population concentrates in certain areas, driving up cost in those areas, that does not mean the state as a whole is experiencing growth.

Really? because in most remote places in California housing prices remain indecent. At least coastal CA.

As an example I picked a random house from San Luis Obispo (a place not exactly known for its rich industry).
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/15426541_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/35.313654,-120.57272,35.208809,-120.700608_rect/12_zm/0_mmm/
$1.3m. Doesn't exactly have curb appeal.

Quigley says

Yet apparently, replacing educated productive citizens with poor uneducated immigrants who don’t speak the language and will need lots of social welfare for a long time is a good trade.

Poor uneducated immigrants aren't the ones bidding up million dollars homes.

Heraclitusstudent says

Poor uneducated immigrants aren't the ones bidding up million dollars homes.

Correct: They live 6 to an apartment...when they aren't living in tent favellas springing up everywhere in California these days.

Just like Brazil and the other third world shitholes where there is a large underclass, very small middle class and the rich lording over everything else. Welcome to California!

Heraclitusstudent says

Poor uneducated immigrants aren't the ones bidding up million dollars homes.

No one is bidding them up..

http://patrick.net/post/1324924/2019-06-05-la-developers-are-getting-desperate-as-megamansion-glut-worsens

Heraclitusstudent says

Really? because in most remote places in California housing prices remain indecent. At least coastal CA.

Not true in NorCal, or Imperial Valley. I'd guess the proximity to Paseo Robles has something to do with that price. But what it lists at isn't as important as what it sells for.

As long as the politicians have big black SUVs, gold chains and diamond stick pins for their ties, things are all right in California.

NuttBoxer says

I'd guess the proximity to Paseo Robles has something to do with that price

Yeah Palo Alto has GOOGL FB AAPL.
Paseo Robles has? Farm.com?

Heraclitusstudent says

Paseo Robles has? Farm.com?

Isn't that wine country? Can't get much snootier than that.

Is the money coming from selling wine?
Or it's all rich retirees bidding up San Luis Obispo?

NuttBoxer says

No one is bidding them up..

http://patrick.net/post/1324924/2019-06-05-la-developers-are-getting-desperate-as-megamansion-glut-worsens

Maybe they were a bit ahead of themselves on units above $20 millions.

But why is this shack worth $1.3million?
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/15426541_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/35.313654,-120.57272,35.208809,-120.700608_rect/12_zm/0_mmm/

Heraclitusstudent says

But why is this shack worth $1.3million?

Supply/Demand, we all know that.

Builders don't want to build, because regulations and bullshit drives cost through the roof.
Land is expensive
Millions of illegals do take up housing too, so it's not cost free, and just adds to housing shortages.

Remove all government out of equation and housing will build up fast in CA.

The entire premise of the thread was that the demand for the state of CA is falling.
I don't think illegals are bidding up million dollar shacks.

WookieMan says

I've know quite a few people that have left IL. All I'll say is that the grass isn't always greener on the other side. A lot of people justify their move and throw out BS and then say they're happy in their new place, but it's all rubbish. IL is by far not a great state, but most people that are miserable here, generally end up miserable in their new home state.

Yeah - but can't you live in one of the suburbs next door in Wisconsin or Indiana and have basically the exact same weather and geography, minus the high taxes, crime and Democrat dysfunction?

I can only justify living in California because of the amazing weather and surf. If it weren't for that, I would have moved years ago and be much closer to retirement by now.

Just can't imagine being locked into a retarded Democrat Blue state like Illinois (the state of my birth!) and still suffer through crap ass weather along with the high cost of living!

*California’s population growth is the slowest in recorded history*
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-population-growth-20190501-story.html

Keep in mind that California is absolutely gorgeous in terms of geography and weather.

So rich people will still be coming here and driving up housing prices.

Illinois has Chicago, which is a world class city by all accounts. It has everything such a city should have, and can be quite fun!
Other than Chicago, it’s cornfields and Caterpillar and schizophrenic weather, and that’s about it. Everything else about the state is very very meh.

Which makes it hard to justify staying there for middle class folks paying high high taxes. Having lived in both Illinois and California, I can say that only the golden state approaches value for cost.

Quigley says

Illinois has Chicago, which is a world class city by all accounts. It has everything such a city should have, and can be quite fun!
Other than Chicago, it’s cornfields and Caterpillar and schizophrenic weather, and that’s about it. Everything else about the state is very very meh.

Yeah - but you can live in Indiana and Wisconsin and be in Chicago in less than an hour.

Quigley says

Illinois has Chicago,

IL also has 120 new cannabis licenses to be awarded next year. These are those good, government protected crony capitalistic tickets to riches.

I'll gladly pay extra in taxes if the govt forces all IL marijuana buyers to buy from in state producers, and I own 1 of those licenses.

See? Totally easy to get ahead in a blue state. Make the govt your business partner, and bam

CBOEtrader says

Quigley says

Illinois has Chicago,

IL also has 120 new cannabis licenses to be awarded next year. These are those good, government protected crony capitalistic tickets to riches.

I'll gladly pay extra in taxes if the govt forces all IL marijuana buyers to buy from in state producers, and I own 1 of those licenses.

See? Totally easy to get ahead in a blue state. Make the govt your business partner, and bam

Are you black? If not good luck. Lol. If you were you could get interest free loans from the state to get the license. One of my biggest issues with legal pot in IL. Raise the most amount of revenue you can from it and fix the fucking pension debt. Nah, give free money away to your black and brown friends and keep our financial ratings in the shithole costing everyone more money.

Yeah - but can't you live in one of the suburbs next door in Wisconsin or Indiana and have basically the exact same weather and geography, minus the high taxes, crime and Democrat dysfunction?

That was part of the premise of my post though. The idea that weather is the same next door and IN or WI are any better. My wife’s aunt moved to Indiana to save $4k/yr in property taxes. It’ll take them probably 4-6 years to recoup the moving costs in saved taxes. They’re just over the border and even though it’s close and a “nice” suburban subdivision, the surrounding area is a shithole. Honestly, Indiana is one of the worst states I’ve been to. I’ll happily pay $300-500/mo more to not live there.

And Wisconsin property tax rates aren’t that far off from IL. I like Wisconsin better, but the COL in the Southern part of the state is not worth the cost to move there unless you’re buying a forever house.

IL sucks, but if you’re in a cold weather state and have to be there, it’s not as awful as it’s made out to be.

WookieMan says

Indiana is one of the worst states I’ve been to.

I thought Elkhart was nice, but I was a kid when I lived there. Michigan is also not very far from Chicago, and the west side of the state is very nice, and has better weather.

WookieMan says

Are you black?

Lakota

CBOEtrader says

WookieMan says

Are you black?

Lakota

Ahhhhh. Well that’ll do it. Move back! We need normal people selling drugs, not the same ones doing it now.

NuttBoxer says

WookieMan says

Indiana is one of the worst states I’ve been to.

I thought Elkhart was nice, but I was a kid when I lived there. Michigan is also not very far from Chicago, and the west side of the state is very nice, and has better weather.

My blanket may have been too broad. There are parts that are fine of IN, but overall having traversed the state 2-3 times a year, it’s mostly a shit show.

WookieMan says

but most people that are miserable here, generally end up miserable in their new home state. A lot of people can't just understand that they may be the problem

WookieMan says

Not really settle down in one place as there's no point.

Interesting.

I can appreciate the idea of exploring different places for six months at a time or whatever, if you're retired or work from home.

But no point in settling in one place ?

WookieMan says

My blanket may have been too broad. There are parts that are fine of IN, but overall having traversed the state 2-3 times a year, it’s mostly a shit show.

How is it any different than 95% of Illinois that isn't Chicago?

I spent a good chunk of my life living in Carmel, Indiana. It has best rated the best place to live in America several years in a row now.
https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/a9280984/best-place-to-live-in-america/

Nearby Fishers, Indiana is also makes the top list.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/22/fishers-indiana-tops-money-magazines-list-of-best-places-to-live.html

Southern Indiana is beautiful with the rolling hills, Brown County and Bloomington, IN.

You get all of this without Illinois' ridiculously high taxes, high crime, dysfunction and corruption.

WookieMan says

IL sucks, but if you’re in a cold weather state and have to be there, it’s not as awful as it’s made out to be.

I used to think like that - until I moved to California and had my eyes opened.

Life is way too short living in shit-ass climates like the upper Midwest AND pay Blue State level taxes with Democrat governance dysfunction.

socal2 says

Nearby Fishers, Indiana

That list has Allen, TX as #2, home of the $30 million high school stadium and hometown of NFL's most recent #1 draft pick (and he beat my high school in Texas State Champ game).

Must be legit. A semi boring small town in IN would legit be a great place to settle down and/or raise a family. Southwest MI also very nice

CBOEtrader says

Must be legit. A semi boring small town in IN would legit be a great place to settle down and/or raise a family. Southwest MI also very nice

Carmel and Fishers are suburbs of Indianapolis. So not really a small town. Carmel is now the roundabout capital of America making is super easy and efficient to get across the town. I've been in Public Works hearings in California cities where residents come up at public speaking time saying "I just got back from visiting family in Carmel and they have these great roundabouts installed at all of the major intersections, why can't we have them here!!"

Other than the metro area, I think Indiana is just like 95% of Illinois.

I got a bunch of relatives in Michigan and will be visiting them next month. Once you cross the Indiana/Michigan border, the surface streets turn to absolute shit.

CBOEtrader says

and I own 1 of those licenses

Who did you have to, umm....you know ?

marcus says

But no point in settling in one place ?

If you don't have kids or they're adults, no point in my opinion. Family is frankly overrated too. It's a forced relationship you didn't get to choose, so I'm always wary of that as an excuse to live somewhere.

I'm a true believer in experiences and fun. Settling down in a place and filling your home with shit you can't take with you when the lights go out sounds like a miserable existence. Give me two checked bags and a backpack and I know I'd have a hell of a lot more fun than sitting in IL, IN, TX, FL or wherever. I can still go to the places of course, but don't have to stay once I find out all the flaws.

And this is obviously a totally opinion based topic with no "right" way to do it. But I've been all lower 48 states. All of them have their positives and negatives of course, but I've yet to find a place I've visited that's like, boom, I've gotta live there forever. Virgin Islands is probably the closest, but the obvious threat of hurricanes off the mainland can result in some prolonged misery as things recover. I also still need to see more even though I've seen a lot at a relatively young age.

socal2 says

Once you cross the Indiana/Michigan border, the surface streets turn to absolute shit.

Lol, that's weird because I didn't say anything about it, but it's like you're reading my mind, though maybe not how I see it. Indiana and Michigan have some of the worst state built roads I've experienced in the country. I know some local muni's probably have decent one's, but it's one of the reasons I think Indiana is awful. Indiana specifically is littered with trash all along their highways, especially 65. And don't get me started on the Indiana toll road. Probably the poorest run toll road in the country. If you're going to have a toll road it better fucking be immaculate if you're going to charge people to use it. Indiana toll road is NOT that by a long shot.

The crime stuff with IL and Chicago specifically is massively overblown if you're an average citizen. Austin, Englewood, Garfield Park, South Shore and North Lawndale probably produce 90% of the states murders (back of the napkin guess, but I'd venture to guess pretty close to correct). So 5 minority neighborhoods make the entire state a crime ridden hell hole. Neighborhoods 99.9% of normal people would never visit or experience. I'd say let 'em shoot each other up all day and help with population control and just not go to those neighborhoods if you'd be worried about crime. It's obviously still a negative from the outside looking in, but it's not really a problem at all elsewhere.

And I'm not trying to be an IL homer either. Wisconsin competes as it actually has decent scenery and is slightly cheaper than IL. My Lake Michigan state ranking would be WI, IL, MI (IL and MI are probably interchangeable) and then IN. Factor in the entire lower 48 and I'd say IL is a middle of the road, probably 25-30 ranking wise. So I'm not praising it necessarily. And if money is no problem and we're talking individual towns/cities, IL by a long shot has much nicer communities than IN.

I'd guess most people have a love of where they were brought up or lived for an extended period most of the time. So it's kind of a silly argument if we want to call it that. I'm sure I'd enjoy parts of IN if I had an extended time there and likewise with you and IL. For a non-resident that has visited often and travel through quite a bit, I'm just not sold on IN though.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

and I own 1 of those licenses

Who did you have to, umm....you know ?

Haven't gone through the process yet. Will let you know when my lips are chapped

WookieMan says

I'd have a hell of a lot more fun

If you can manage a career like that then go get after it!

I moved from Chicago to California during the dot com bubble.

I don't regret it overall. Both places have problems, but I really didn't like winter or humid summers or mosquitoes. Felt like I was getting away with something by avoiding winter in particular.

The Midwest is at least stable and reasonable in most respects. California is bipolar, with insanely great scenery and weather, and insanely horrible politics.

I could probably have been quite happy in downtown Chicago with a good enough job, but it didn't happen that way.

One regret is that I've been so far from most of my relatives for so long.

Patrick says

One regret is that I've been so far from most of my relatives for so long.

Southwest if you're cool with economy flying. I'm flying every month this year for fun and haven't paid a dime (besides the $11 and change for the 9/11 fees or whatever). 4 hours roughly from SFO to MDW. The free checked luggage is nice, but we've got the packing light thing down now, so we're carryon to avoid waiting for that shit.

Weather matters, but I've always wondered how much I'd "use" the outdoors so to speak in place like CA. Between work, life and all the other shit, I don't have a ton of free time. Winters are awful though here as any skiing/snowboard type actives I like are absolute trash compared to CA/CO/UT/MT places I've been. As I've gotten older the seasonal shit has gotten worse on my head during those dark months. Need sunlight. Hence my desire to get closer to the equator.

CBOEtrader says

If you can manage a career like that then go get after it!

Kids dammit. Sons a bitches. We still do travel a lot though. Once my youngest hit 5 we've been trying to do 2 months a year travel now that he can start remembering this shit. My wife and I both have the SW companion passes, so our kids fly for free and we use points from my wife's work expenses and our regular daily expenses. It's the best thing going for domestic and Caribbean/Mexico/Costa Rica travel.

Need to travel hack international flights a lot better though. Supposed to do Europe next year and the sticker shock on flight prices going from $44-$300 total in this area of the globe, to $600/pp minimum for Europe is nuts. Anyone with tips on good credit card offers or ways to get points for longer haul international flights, I'd love to hear it.

WookieMan says

Weather matters, but I've always wondered how much I'd "use" the outdoors so to speak in place like CA. Between work, life and all the other shit, I don't have a ton of free time.

If you lived out here, you would find time to enjoy all of the amazing geography and weather. I'm an avid surfer and runner and use the shit out of the oceans and local mountains, but just being able to sit on my back patio every morning and enjoy sunshine without humidity and bugs does miracles to my mood. There is so much natural beauty in California it is nice to just get out on a local hike to clear the head and to get outside. You can pretty much guarantee good weather for any outdoor activity all year round. I can't tell you how many times I've had races or sporting events ruined by weather when I lived back East. Every time I went to the Indy 500 back in the 90's I got rained on.

If I still lived in the Midwest, I would probably be 30 pounds heavier as there is absolutely nothing to do in the Winter but sit inside at home or a bar to drink, eat and watch sports. Hot and muggy summers are not much better either....

socal2 says

If I still lived in the Midwest, I would probably be 30 pounds heavier as there is absolutely nothing to do in the Winter but sit inside at home or a bar to drink, eat and watch sports. Hot and muggy summers are not much better either....

I hear ya. It's an unverifiable opinion, but the eating part is better in the Midwest hence the weight gain, lol. Outside of authentic Mexican, I'm not sure I've had what I'd consider a good meal in CA at a high(er) end place (non-chain). I'm sure there's good food somewhere, but I've had little luck and Yelp blows.

I've stopped watching sports for the most part. We need the muggy summer to sweat off that winter weight, so it works out eventually. We also have a fuckload of fresh, drinkable water in our backyard (Lake Michigan - that M F'r is overflowing practically right now) and no fires. No earthquakes either, though y'all have been pretty quiet on that front. Tornados suck here, but never really had one too close.

IL is whacky, but some of the shit I've heard and seen coming out of CA is unbelievable a lot of the time. We at least realized we'd fuck up high speed rail prior to blowing shitloads of money on it (mostly). Because so many people want to go to the shithole known as St. Louis in triple the time of a flight. Trust me though, I'd definitely rather live in CA based on weather/scenery, but not sure I'd enjoy the other stuff. As W-2 employees we'd be touching that 13% income tax level in CA and I'm not sure I'd deal well with that.