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China: No Longer the Wave of the Future

By cmdrda2leak follow cmdrda2leak   2019 Apr 9, 8:08am 1,780 views   53 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    



Not too long ago the West was breezily talking of China as if the 1989 Tiananmen Square debacle and its aftermath that saw the Chinese government kill some 10,000 protesters and dissidents was a mere speed bump on the fated way to Chinese democracy and an open society. Beltway wisdom was that any year China could experience a moment akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Then status quo elite thinking in Washington was that even if the Chinese ran up huge deficits, treated their trading partners in ruthless fashion, jailed critics in a vast gulag archipelago, and mimicked the colonialism and imperialism of the former Japanese Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of the late 1930s and 1940s, Beijing, nonetheless, would inevitably translate its new affluence and self-confidence into free elections and eventual liberal society — or at least become a benign world hegemon. After all, its high-speed rail, its solar-panel factories, and modern airports wowed American pundits — as if China offered a model of green modern authoritarianism that could supersede Neanderthal resistance to green central planners. A Chinese Carmel or Upper West Side was always proverbially right around the corner.

Just as it had been awed by Western money and technology, surely China would be even more wowed by Western magnanimity and so reciprocate by mimicking Western political and cultural institutions.

That fantasy has dissipated as Donald Trump shattered its glass veneer. The vision of China as always on the cusp of consensual government was always about as accurate as the old American dreams that the more powerful imperial Japan became in the early 20th century, the more apt Tokyo would be to assume a role as a sober and judicious Westernized protector of global norms. Again, ahistorical groupthink, fueled by globalist nonsense, simply ignored Chinese history and culture.

***

Groupthink explains radical transformations in conventional wisdom and received opinion. The status of China should always have been pretty clear: The Chinese government was a Communist autocracy with a long history of mass murder, racial and religious intolerance, and hatred of democracy — whether it lived hand to mouth in Maoist times or befooled naïve journalists and buccaneer corporatists who bragged about its shiny new infrastructure.

What changed was not the essence of China, but its superficial veneer, which tricked the gullible or conniving Westerners into assuming its fascist brand of capitalism led to riches and on to eventual freedom.

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14   cmdrda2leak   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 25, 2:40pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      


maybe the world if youth educational trend continue.
(Chinese parent spend 25% of their income on education, mostly one child family.)
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.


Uh huhhh... maybe some math stars but not especially brilliant in the language and grammar skills department, apparently?

15   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 2:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

you are funny, maybe unintentional way.
Let's ask the average Murican restaurant worker to write in another language.
No, just ask them to write in English. lol
16   cmdrda2leak   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 25, 2:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
you are funny, maybe unintentional way.
Let's ask the average Murican restaurant worker to write in another language.
No, just ask them to write in English. lol


In California, they all speak Spanish.
17   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 2:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

My current role is in education, CC level technology program.
I will tell you the average student think simple algebra is high level math.
Most cannot comprehend a low level technical paper.
Alarming proportions cannot write English for entry level professional work.
18   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 3:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
Technology wise China is the undisputed 800 lb gorilla of Asian, maybe the world if youth educational trend continue.


kt1652 says
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.


Perhaps you need to travel to Asia-Pacific, and see how ppl really think. The ppl of Asia do not have this glowing opinion of mainland China.

As for STEM, there are countless math quizzes, even the USA, who're stuck doing postdocs and in adjunct prof positions. Remember, I have degree in Applied Chemistry/Chemical Engineering but I made my money in financial services, not STEM work.

The truth here is that no one else in Asia, including an ethnically majority Chinese in Singapore, wants to be a PRC national. Why do ppl from Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Korea, India, etc, want a degree from England (Oxford, Cambridge, London) or USA (MIT, Stanford, Duke. Ivies), and not one from Beijing University? It's simple, no one trusts China (PRC) and sees it as some authoritarian regional dictatorship, stealing resources from everyone around it.

So unless China invades and subjugates all of Asia-Pacific under its thumb, places like the USA (& what's left of the west) will still exert its influence over the region.
19   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
So unless China invades and subjugates all of Asia-Pacific under its thumb, places like the USA (& what's left of the west) will still exert its influence over the region.

They sit next to China. China by its cheer size will dominate the region politically and economically. Their influence will range from monetary help, to economic collaborations, to military invasion.
The US "influence" will be likely be truncated quickly to just "cultural" influence, kind of like England whose Universities are so looked after. Though the US doesn't really have a culture, beyond shopping habits.
It's gonna be a sad story.
20   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.

Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.
21   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 3:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
They sit next to China. China by its cheer size will dominate the region politically and economically. Their influence will range from monetary help, to economic collaborations, to military invasion.
The US "influence" will be likely be truncated quickly to just "cultural" influence, kind of like England whose Universities are so looked after. Except well... the US doesn't really have a culture beyond shopping habits.


Here's the difference, there are rich ppl in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the list goes on, who don't want their capital and resources confiscated by PRC. Trust me, I'd lived through the early 2000s, where many Singaporean/Malay ventures got ripped off by PRC tactics on the mainland.

None of them want that albatross around their necks forever. And since it's obvious you haven't been to Asia-Pacific, shopping is a huge part of life from Singapore, through Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, and Japan.
22   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 3:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.


Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.
23   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Singapore is puny. What they like or not doesn't matter.
Singapore + Malaysia + Thailand + Korea + Japan is divided.
It's a bit like saying South American countries will not let the US control the American continent.
24   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

zero hedge has more on Bannon and Bass:

"All the pressure on Trump to strike a trade deal is coming from Wall Street and corporate America," Bass argued. "Look who fought CFIUS reform...some of the biggest companies in the US and Wall Street came together to fight it. Steve is right about who's fighting...it's corporate America fighting to get Trump to do a deal...and China plays that card and they play it better than anyone else...they open a market to very specific people to court influence."

"Look at what they're doing...they have a geopolitical strategy to unite theEurasian land mass into one single market then to force the United States out of the Western Pacific then out of the Pacific overall. The radical cadre - this is not the Chinese people - this is about a radical cadre that is taking charge of the Communist Party led by President Xi...they've been running an economic war against the industrial democracies for 20 years."

And by the way, the funding -- the entire operation of the Chinese Communist Party and what they’re running in China is being funded by Wall Street, which Kyle can walk through, being funded by Wall Street. And corporate America – remember, PBS or NPR had this thing the other day about intrusions into stealing Intellectual Property in American companies. They talked to a Treasury official went around to 200 companies. Not one company would -- had been stolen from would press charges because they didn’t want to be blocked out of China. Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department. You can see this on President Trump’s -- on President Trump’s trade negotiation, which I say is an armistice on the economic war. When Liu He comes to the United States, where does he go first?"

"Now we have a whole of government approach to really confront China on an economic war, this has never happened...the permanent political class and their paymasters on Wall Street have owned the political dialogue."

I think some people are starting to smell the coffee and wake up, but most are still focused on short term interests.
25   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 3:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Singapore is puny. What they like or not doesn't matter.


Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world. More and more Chinese money is flowing through there than anywhere else.

Heraclitusstudent says
Singapore + Malaysia + Thailand + Korea + Japan is divided.
It's a bit like saying South American countries will not let the US control the American continent.


Sorry but your Monroe Doctrine analogy, which is specific to the New World, where the USA was the first independent country, doesn't work. Many South Americans prefer to study and possibly re-locate to Uncle Sam. And yes, as a result, the US is struggling to incorporate Spanish as a 2nd language, In contrast, no one wants to live in PRC. And PRC does not accept any other group of ppl aside from Han Chinese.

PRC is seen as a regional oppressor, not an ally of any sorts.
26   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.


China left the US finance while the ate manufacturing. Manufacturing the key to industries, control of technologies and skills.
Once they are done they will move to finance.
Deriving monetary income from the work of others is a nice trick while they let you do it.
27   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world. More and more Chinese money is flowing through there than anywhere else.

That makes them an attractive target.
The Templars were financing Philip IV of France, he was heavily in their debt.
Until one day he wiped them out, and burnt their leaders at the stake.
28   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 3:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Once they are done they will move to finance.


If PRC maintains its tight control over financial flows then this won't happen.

Ask yourself why ... 1 square mile in London's center city, for 5 centuries, have been able to make Britain as financial center? It's because it was a tax free/open money laundering zone for much of the world. Even today, this goes on.

If the City of London (separate from Metro/Greater London) stops this, the UK will be a 3rd world nation within a single generation. Instead, despite the great collapse of a massive overseas empire, since 1948, is still functioning as one of the world's G-5.

No one will launder their cash, through the PRC.
29   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 3:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Heraclitusstudent says
Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.


Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.

About Rin again?
30   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 3:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
If the City of London (separate from Metro/Greater London) stops this, the UK will be a 3rd world nation within a single generation. Instead, despite the great collapse of a massive overseas empire, since 1948, is still functioning as one of the world's G-5.

The last refuge for people who have lost everything else that mattered.
31   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 4:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Remind me again how money changers create innovative products print way out of deficits?
32   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 4:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
The last refuge for people who have lost everything else that mattered.


Yep, which is why rich Asians (all countries, not just PRC) won't park their cash with Beijing Inc.
33   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 4:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world.


Switzerland is probably the one country that has been able to stay durably in their banking position.
Their mountains are a fortress full of military purpose tunnels, every adult male has a gun at home and stands ready to use it.
Hitler didn't attack Switzerland for a reason.
I doubt Singapore can pull out the same.
34   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 4:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
I doubt Singapore can pull out the same.


Ok, so then I await the invasion, not only of Singapore (with its 75+% ethnic Chinese majority) but that entire region between Vietnam-Thailand and Indonesia by the PRC army to control the region. Remember, Vietnam also resisted PRC back in 1979.

If that occurs, and NATO (formerly SEATO) completely concedes defeat, then you're right, PRC is the new Emperor of the new millennia.

Until then, it sounds like a lot of sabre rattling by a regionally unpopular govt, trying to manipulate and brow beat their neighbors into shoddy business arrangements.
35   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 4:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Singapore, I like Singapore a lot great food multi culture very interesting place, but really. I can bicycle across Singapore in one day
36   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 4:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
Singapore, I like Singapore a lot great food multi culture very interesting place, but really. I can bicycle across Singapore in one day


Think of it as Hong Kong 2, the actual independent Chinese country within Asia-Pacific but English speaking with Mandarin (not Cantonese) as a primary 2nd language.

Since Hong Kong fell to PRC in 1997, Singapore has become that unofficial independent Chinese city-state. One of my former colleague emigrated from HK to Singapore during the past decade.
37   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 4:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Yeah and China can snuff out Hong Kong like a bug
38   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 4:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
Yeah and China can snuff out Hong Kong like a bug


For the most part, it already did. HK is no longer a free city-state and everyone there knows it.

If PRC invades Singapore, HK2, then it's an act of war, which will involve NATO/SEATO and anyone else who cares about SE Asia.
39   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 4:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

They don't need to invade either HK or Singapore. They just need to set the rules to their advantage.

"To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill."
40   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 4:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
They don't need to invade either HK or Singapore


HK was invaded, post 1997, if you haven't noticed.

Singapore is not a peninsular region of China. Instead, it's the peninsular island, at the tail end of Malaysia, and was granted independence back in the early 60s. And thus, it operated much like any other country like Luxembourg, Andorra, or Belize.

So if Singapore plays the City of London game long term then yes, China will have to invade to stop 'em.
41   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 5:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
So if Singapore plays the City of London game long term then yes, China will have to invade to stop 'em.


Just to add to this theme, don't you think that Malays, Indonesians, Indians, Thais, etc, also use Singapore for monetary diversification? Asia does not resolve around the race of Han Chinese only.
42   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Apr 25, 5:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Yes so HK is no longer in the city of London game.
Look at how the US imposes rules to European banks: must declare accounts of US citizen. Extra-territorial rules. Otherwise no business in the US, or fines, etc...
Some European countries have similar rules for Swiss accounts: citizen must pay x% of taxes on assets, regardless of income, even if legally held in Swiss banks.
It will be worse with China.
44   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 5:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
It will be worse with China.


Ok, but then that means that they'll have to tell Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, India, etc, how to conduct business with Singapore.

There are plenty of rich ppl in Asia-Pacific who don't carry PRC passports. Plus, even famous former PRCers (ethnic Han Chinese) have given up their PRC passports for Singaporeans ones like actress Gong Li.
45   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 5:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
Heraclitusstudent says
It will be worse with China.


Ok, but then that means that they'll have to tell Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, India, etc, how to conduct business with Singapore.

There are plenty of rich ppl in Asia-Pacific who don't carry PRC passports. Plus, even famous former PRCers (ethnic Han Chinese) have given up their PRC passports for Singaporeans ones like actress Gong Li.

Do you think if Xi went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours. Do you think trump or Pelosi is going to start WW3, send American boys to street fights in chinese soil, or napalm the city?
The Brits?
Ps, I take it back, Trump will start WW3 if he is losing to Biden!
46   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 5:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says

Do you think if Shih went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours.


HK is already done, they're owned by PRC. So what's the question?

The question is whether or not, PRC will launch an invasion of SE Asia, conquering Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia so that these nations don't easily exchange money with Singapore and the western NATO nations including South Korea and Japan. If that happens then yes, we're looking at a major war.
47   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 5:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rin says
kt1652 says

Do you think if Shih went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours.


HK is already done, they're owned by PRC. So what's the question?

The question is whether or not, PRC will launch an invasion of SE Asia, conquering Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia so that these nations don't easily exchange money with Singapore and the western NATO nations including South Korea and Japan. If that happens then yes, we're looking at a major war.

That is a non question. Beijing completely dominate V,T,M,S & Indo akready. Why would Xi start a war? It's like we can wipe out Mexico/Can, but would make no sense whatsoever.
48   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 6:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

kt1652 says
Beijing completely dominate V,T,M,S & Indo akready.


They do not monetarily dominate Asia. If so, then all funds funnel through the Renminbi which it doesn't.

Boy, you guys really don't get it. The relationship between PRC and the rest of Asia is not the US, Canada, Mexico, and the Monroe Doctrine. When will you get it. Right now, the USD is the sole currency of the nation of Panama. The fact of the matter is that the USD is widely used throughout the world, esp south of the border.

And likewise, a lot of that world (not just South America but countless other nations) either want to live or conduct business within the USA.

In contrast, no one in Asia, wants to deal with PRC ... its racial politics, its currency controls, and its government. If you haven't figured it out then none of you have actually worked or lived in Asia-Pacific. The PRC is basically the Asian version of the USSR, trying to push its way through another set of Pragues, Budapests, etc, but in this case, without using armed forces but some faint notion that in the distant future, the USA, NATO, and the rest of the world will stop doing business with Asia-Pacific and it'll only be China and no one else.
49   Rin   ignore (7)   2019 Apr 25, 6:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran, can you jump in and set these ideologues straight?
50   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 7:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

China is Indonesia's largest export & importdestination, over Japan, USA.
China remains Malaysia's largest trading partner, 10 years running.
Vietnam...China as leading partner, to benefit from US-Sino trade war.
Google it.
These countries may not like Beijing, but they also know the USA will not shed blood over them...not enought oil there.
51   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 25, 7:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I hosted some distant in-laws who are Filipinos of modest means, in Hong Kong. Being people of modest means, it's nearly impossible for them to get a visitor visa to the US. Since I wanted to spend some time with them, I met them in Hong Kong. Because of the timing of the flights, my guests arrived the night before my kids and me.

My niece told me about the curt, officious treatment from the immigration officer at the arrivals terminal. They had to prove they had return tickets, and show proof that they had a hotel reservation that was already paid for during their stay in Hong Kong. Good thing I emailed those stuff to my niece and told her to print them out and bring them along to the airport. They also made her party all gather together as a group to exit the arrivals hall.

When my mixed race party arrived with our US passports, no problem. We were waived through, no questions asked. And we weren't asked to "gather together" to go through immigration as a group.

It was only after I was home from the trip that the subtle racism the clerks at the hotel treated my inlaws with had dawned on me. If I realized what had happened at the time, I would have read the hotel the riot act.

Walking about the streets of HK Island looking for particular stuff, my kids and I would ask locals for directions. My niece's mom was amazed, how "nice the Chinese people are to Filipinos here"; "not like in the Philippines." I didn't have the heart to tell her, it's because your with us.
52   cmdrda2leak   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 25, 10:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

B.A.C.A.H. says

When my mixed race party arrived with our US passports, no problem


...


It was only after I was home from the trip that the subtle racism the clerks at the hotel treated my inlaws with had dawned on me. If I realized what had happened at the time, I would have read the hotel the riot act.


Sorry, not to pick nits here, but... That isn't racism. You said just above that the US party was mixed race. What your Filipino party experienced was the very practical application of risk management.

Chance of US nationals tasting the freedom and prosperity of life in Hong Kong and not returning: approximately zero.

Chance of PH nationals of modest means tasting the prosperity of life in HK and not returning: definitely nonzero.

53   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 25, 11:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

So what? Common Chinese are racists, they discrimate even chinese, Noth vs south, east vs west, dark vs light skin...HKers feel superior to mainlanders, and any darker Asians. Older ones hates japanese. They are rude to everyone, except the wealthy.

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