« prev   random   next »

5
2

Here’s President Trump’s stock-market scorecard after 2 years in office

By MrMagic follow MrMagic   2019 Jan 22, 9:20pm 3,583 views   31 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


President Donald Trump has often taken credit for how well stocks do, inadvertently turning equities into a proxy report card for his presidency.

Jan. 20 marked two full years since the real estate mogul and the reality TV star was sworn in as president. In that time, stocks have rallied to records, making him among the most successful Republican presidents when judged by market gains. In fact, the Nasdaq soared 29% since January 2017, marking the tech-centric index’s best rally under a Republican president, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

DOW

First two years (+25.21%):

6th best percentage gain for a Republican president (out of 17)
11th best percentage gain for any president (out of 31)
The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a Republican president since Reagan from 1985 - 1987

S&P 500

First two years (+17.98%):

5th best percentage gain for a Republican president (out of 11)
10th best percentage gain for any president (out of 23)
The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a Republican president since Bush from 2005 - 2007

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-president-trumps-stock-market-scorecard-after-2-years-in-office-2019-01-22
1   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2019 Jan 22, 11:54pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

All it took was a corporate tax rate cut of 14% most of which went to stock buybacks.
2   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2019 Jan 23, 12:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Stock market was doing even better still before the Democrats took the house.
3   clambo   ignore (5)   2019 Jan 23, 7:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I just wish that dimwit Powell at the Fed would take blame for trying to fuck things up. He should have kept his huge mouth shut and left well enough alone. He was a fool.
Luckily, Trump turned the spotlight on him and he began to melt; guys like Powell know they really don't know shit and don't like the attention.

What can you expect from a guy who never studied 1. finance 2. economics

Wait? Powell didn't study something in college related to his job? His degree: politics.

Most often, Boy Scouts are taught to use leaves for shitting in the woods but if those are scarce, a diploma in politics is also useful.

Either way, the economy is going to keep chugging along. Interest rates won't get high like they did in the late 70's-early 80's, oil prices will not go up too fast, and more people working means more consumption=more profits for "greedy corporations".

Yesterday I was driving around with a girl I know from Haiti and she asked me what my plan was; I said I wished to wait until my net worth got bit higher so I can spend safely X per year. She said "what could you spend per year starting now?" She wanted some, she just turned 37 and wants her piece of the pie. Too bad, the one who is 24 wants some too so I guess it will be "divide and conquer" (insert evil Penguin laughter)
4   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 8:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
All it took was a corporate tax rate cut of 14% most of which went to stock buybacks.


Really?

Trump was able to roll back the calendar to early 2017 for the tax cuts?

Wow, that guy really has some power!
5   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 8:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SunnyvaleCA says
Stock market was doing even better still before the Democrats took the house.


Yep. definitely shows you how the market feels about the Democrats and their policies.
7   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 9:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
Your numbers are the totals for the 2 year period including 2018. Further, the tax cuts would have been largely factored into equity prices during 2017 and soon after the bill was passed.


Wrong, but nice try on the backtrack.

Which was a better year for the market, 2017 or 2018? Which year were the tax cuts passed?

Want to try again, you're 0 for 2?
9   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 9:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
Tax cuts passed in 2017,


The end of December 2017 (Dec 22nd to be accurate), and didn't take effect until the 2018 calendar year. It had ZERO effect on 2017, as no one knew what was going to be passed.

ThreeBays says
and 2017 was the better year.


Well, you got that one right, and the tax cut had nothing to do with it.

You want to tell us that the last two months of 2016, where the market grew like 8% after Trump won, unlike the flatline it was in the first 10 months of Obama, was from the tax cuts too?

ThreeBays says
Head seems stuck deep in there.


Ahhh, at least the Liberals are consistent when their bullshit is caught.
10   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2019 Jan 23, 9:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MrMagic says
You want to tell us that the last two months of 2016, where the market grew like 8% after Trump won, unlike the flatline it was in the first 10 months of Obama, was from the tax cuts too?


Did I ever say ALL of the growth came from the tax cut? No, I did not.
11   NoCoupForYou   ignore (4)   2019 Jan 23, 9:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
Yesterday I was driving around with a girl I know from Haiti and she asked me what my plan was; I said I wished to wait until my net worth got bit higher so I can spend safely X per year. She said "what could you spend per year starting now?" She wanted some, she just turned 37 and wants her piece of the pie. Too bad, the one who is 24 wants some too so I guess it will be "divide and conquer" (insert evil Penguin laughter)


My admiration for you is high.

A soyboy would tell you to marry the 37 year old without a pre-nup, because shes "Lonely".
12   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 10:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
Did I ever say ALL of the growth came from the tax cut? No, I did not.


Ahhh, nice backtrack again..

Actually none of the growth came from the tax cuts, even with all that extra cash available to corporations to buy back stock, it still had a negative affect on 2018.

But somehow you feel 2017 market growth came from a policy passed a year later in the future.

Amazing stuff.

Next you'll be telling us 2017 market growth was from Obama (even though the market was flat his last two years before Trump won), right?
14   ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2019 Jan 23, 12:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MrMagic says
Actually none of the growth came from the tax cuts, even with all that extra cash available to corporations to buy back stock, it still had a negative affect on 2018.

But somehow you feel 2017 market growth came from a policy passed a year later in the future.


That's your argument?

Equity prices are all about expected future returns. The expected tax cut definitely got priced to a degree during 2017. And to say it had a negative effect in 2018? ROFLMAO. Equities would have fallen more in 2018 without the tax stimulus.
15   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 1:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

That means Obama out did Trump.


In SPENDING and PRINTING money, yep, you're right.

How many BILLIONS in QE did it take for Obama to get his gains?

How many Billions of UNWINDING of QE did it take for Trump to get his gains?

Crap, those pesky facts again...




16   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 1:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
That's your argument?


Nah, just facts... something Liberals are allergic to..
17   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 1:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

That means Obama out did Trump.


I like this game, what else do we know about Obama's amazing economic policies?

Let's start with ZIPR, it's amazing what can be "bought" with ZERO percent interest rates:




Gee, look what happened to rates with Trump, yet the market still went up. Imagine that!!


18   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 3:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
Yes, Obama got handed an economy that was dead. No pulse. Zero % federal funds rate, just somehow staying alive. And he nursed the US economy back to health.


Isn't it amazing what Zero percent interest rates, printing TRILLIONS of dollars, and running Trillion dollar deficits for 4 years can do?



Rocketmanjoe says
Trump super heated an economy


Really??? a 3% economy is "overheated".... wow...

Rocketmanjoe says
causing the federal funds rate to rise, we will see what happens as interest rates increase.


Trump is trying to NORMALIZE rates back to normal historic levels. If you were a student of economics, you'd understand that.



Rocketmanjoe says
Will people be able to keep up with their loans. I guess that just depends on how leveraged they are.


So, people borrowing more than they can afford to pay back is Trump's fault??

Really?
19   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 3:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

That means Obama out did Trump.


Ya think so?? How are you at numbers?

Obama
Dow Jan 2009: 8,000
Dow Jan 2011: 11,800

Gain: 3,800 points

Trump
Dow Jan 2017: 20,000
Dow Jan 2019: 24,575

Gain: 4,575 points

Which is bigger: 3,800 or 4,575?
20   NoCoupForYou   ignore (4)   2019 Jan 23, 6:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

An economy growing at 3% with only the most mild inflation is hardly "unsustainable" or "overheated". Add to that declining home sales.

An overheated economy has strong inflation and shortages in housing and all sorts of commodities and consumer goods due to exploding demand.

None of that exists right now.
21   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 6:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
would you rather get a 25% or a 33% raise?


Ahhh yes, Liberals and percentages.... typical..

MrMagic says
Which is bigger: 3,800 or 4,575?


Would you rather get a $3,800 raise or a $4,575 raise?

Rocketmanjoe says
MrMagic says
Ya think so?? How are you at numbers?


Pretty good.


It doesn't appear that way. Maybe you should go contact Marcus, his math is flawless (not).
22   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 6:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
MrMagic says
Ya think so?? How are you at numbers?


Pretty good.


Since you're so good at numbers, here's some additional fun facts.

Obama couldn't have a "gain" until the market got back to it's original high. It took Obama until 2013 to get back to the previous high. His "gain" came after that. His true gain was only 4800 points over his 8 years.

Trump, in only a little over 2 years since election, has gained MORE than that, and it DIDN'T take any QE, or ZIPR to gain that.




How's that for numbers?
23   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 23, 6:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
With your numbers his gain was only +22.88% that really would look bad compared to Obama's +32.96%.


MrMagic says
Ahhh yes, Liberals and percentages.... typical..


Hey, mr. math wizard. Since you love to measure in percentages, here's a question.

Your boss is going to offer you two options for salary increases, which do you choose?

Do you want a 100% raise on your $1 current salary?, or

Do you want a 10% raise on your $100 current salary?

After all, since 100% is BIGGER than 10%, you'd choose the 100% option, right?
24   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 24, 8:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Rocketmanjoe says
Obama's gain was more like $4420 in the first two years of his second term. Did you still miss that second term part?


How does that compare to Trump's second term?
25   CBOEtrader   ignore (6)   2019 Jan 24, 9:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Meh...



The Obama bounce was pure luck. He got in right as the sp500 was falling through 800, and bounced off of 666!!!! He was then given 2 rounds of QE , amongst every other possible game to help him out.

Trump recieved the opposite tteatment from the swamp.

Trumps accomplishment far more telling of his competence to any unbiased student of the market.
26   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 24, 9:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

CBOEtrader says
The Obama bounce was pure luck. He got in right as the sp500 was falling through 800, and bounced off of 666!!!! He was then given 2 rounds of QE , amongst every other possible game to help him out.


Don't forget Obama had ZIPR.

Companies can buy back tons of shares when they borrow at 0%.
27   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Jan 24, 10:06am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

MrMagic says
How's that for numbers?


Wrong!

28   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Jan 24, 10:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

CBOEtrader says


The Obama bounce was pure luck.


He sure was lucky a lot for 8 years, wasn't he?
And Bush sure was very unlucky after 7 years of being in charge, right?

It's funny how people ascribe their opponent's success to "luck" but the success of their man to skill. (a debt funded tax break is "skill"?).

Or as Napoleon used to say "I don't like unlucky people".
29   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 24, 10:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
Wrong!


Awesome explanation and data presentation.. Nice rebuttal chart.

Oh, wait...
30   MrMagic   ignore (10)   2019 Jan 24, 10:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Heraclitusstudent says
He sure was lucky a lot for 8 years, wasn't he?


Amazing what over $4 TRILLION of printed money can buy.

Amazing what holding interest rates for multiple years at ZERO can buy.

Amazing what running 4 years of over $1 TRILLION of deficits can buy.

Amazing what $10 TRILLION of added debt can buy.

Yep, pretty amazing "luck", right?

What happened to the market when that "luck" ran out his last two years and the market flat lined between 2014 and 2016?

Crap, those pesky facts...
31   clambo   ignore (5)   2019 Jan 24, 2:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

W5000 Nov 4 2016=21594
W5000 Jan 24 2018=27204

Increase =26%

The W5000=Wilshire 5000 index ="total stock market"

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions