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Election predictions

By 6rdB following x   2018 Oct 13, 10:17am 6,513 views   69 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


Let's just post here our election predictions, without swearing at each other or trying to justify why we think election will go one or another way. After election, we can dig this up and some (or none) of us will feel very intelligent.

My prediction: Senate: R gain 1
House: D gain 5.

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30   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 14, 5:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What is outside money?
31   bob2356   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 14, 5:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
The website you pointed me to shows 242M for D's and 328M for R's in 2016, which is not a huge difference. Less that difference between Trump and Hillary spending. In this election cycle, O'Rourke has out-raised Cruz by a large margin. I do not think this is as simple as big money wants R's only"


No one said it's simple. Pull out the presidential amounts and see what the differences are. Go back to earlier elections. Look at who the groups are and who they represent.

The big donors passed on trump. Dark money spending 2016 was down 1/3 from 2012 presidential election because of that. But spending on congressional races was up. Good thing trump was running against hillary who no amount of money could prop up. 2018 isn't a presidential election year, it's only congressional races.

The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?
32   bob2356   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 14, 5:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Important Reminder: Hillary outraised Trump almost 2:1. 3:1 in outside money.


yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.
33   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 14, 5:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?

First, most R's (with exception of Paul who was redistricted out by his colleagues) are not libertarian. Second, I do not believe that "big money" cares which party is in power, so they will support "useful idiots" from either party.
34   Tenpoundbass   ignore (14)   2018 Oct 14, 5:29pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says


That graphic is very misleading.
Trump defended himself against at least 2 billion of opposition candidate funds. If you go back to the primaries.
36   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 15, 2:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Booger says


So much for reading instructions.
37   Tim Aurora   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 15, 2:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Senate: GOP picks up 7 seats.
House: GOP picks up 15 seats.

Red wave baby.


Do you want to play over/under for some wager on that.
38   krc   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 15, 4:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

GOP picks up 3 senate seats.
Hold house by 2.
40   HonkpilledMaster   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 15, 4:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.


Sorry, the Dems were pretty much broke after the election.

It has to be regularly drummed in the head of the left that Big Finance, Big Tech, etc. were big Hillary Supporters.

CBOEtrader says
He's totally full of it.


Multiple people in the thread had to repeat that fact, then he complained that the numbers disproving his conception of reality were being posted by multiple users.
41   HonkpilledMaster   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 15, 4:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.


Hey Bob, did you read the instructions?
42   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 15, 5:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
dr6B says
bob2356 says
The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government

I don't think this is completely true. Big bucks dark money crowd was for Clinton.They do not care about party as long as candidate tows their line.


He's totally full of it.


Help me out @Patrick. This has been flagged twice but keeps magically reappearing.

Posting--"He's totally full of it" about another poster is not a personal attack?
43   Patrick   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 15, 5:31pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

tatupu70 says
Posting--"He's totally full of it" about another poster is not a personal attack?



Yes, that is personal if it's about Bob. I marked it as personal myself now.
44   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 19, 9:52am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2018/10/19/exclusive-scott-adams-predicts-greatest-turnout-by-republicans-maybe-ever-in-midterms/

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms

Adams predicted in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination for president, based on his analysis of Trump’s persuasion skills. He also suggested that Trump had a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.

At the time, few others agreed, but Adams was correct — and has made several other successful predictions since. His Twitter feed and his morning Periscopes have become essential reading and viewing — and are evidently followed closely by the White House.

He told Breitbart News it is too difficult to predict which party will win the November midterm elections, because there are too many local variations in state-by-state and district-by-district battles, “too many variables bigger than persuasion.”

But he predicts that we will see “the greatest turnout by Republicans, maybe ever.”

Republicans, he suggests, have a stronger message, in pointing to the “mobs” that the left have mobilized in protest around the country over the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and other issues. Fear is the most powerful persuasive force, he argues. That — and the sheer fun of winning bigly — could drive GOP voters to the polls.
45   HonkpilledMaster   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 19, 11:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
What is outside money?


Super PACs and 501(c) "Dark Money". The latter does not disclose donors, can push issues but not specific candidates, and can receive unlimited contributions from anybody.
46   bob2356   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 19, 3:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Multiple people in the thread had to repeat that fact, then he complained that the numbers disproving his conception of reality were being posted by multiple users.


TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says


Hey Bob, did you read the instructions?


Did you figure out the numbers for the non presidential races yet? But hey, multiple people posted the same numbers totally irrelevant to the point. I guess they are still working on figuring out 2018 isn't a presidential election year.
47   bob2356   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 19, 3:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
bob2356 says
The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?

First, most R's (with exception of Paul who was redistricted out by his colleagues) are not libertarian. Second, I do not believe that "big money" cares which party is in power, so they will support "useful idiots" from either party.


Most R's have made a deal with the devil and if they don't dance to the libertarian tune they will see their funding disappear and face a strong heavily funded primary challenge from some one who will. Big money? Who's big money? Big money on both sides very much cares which party is in power. Only big money on the R side has a long term coordinated plan they have been executing for 40 years.

So the question still stands, after reaching pretty much the pinnacle of their long term goals are the big boys on the right going to roll over and let the D's take back the house? Hint, the koch bro's libertarian network is planning to spend 60% more on republican congressional races in 2018 than 2016 at 400 million. Which is 150 million more than the RNC can come up with. I would say that is a pretty impressive concentration of money and power in one single group that all R politicians have to respect. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/371069-koch-network-to-spend-400-million-during-2018-midterm-election-cycle
48   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 19, 3:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
house? Hint, the koch bro's libertarian network is planning to spend 60% more on republican congressional races in 2018 than 2016 at 400 million.


The Koch brothers are pro big business not libertarian. They want cheap labor and unlimited imports and the government to help them oppress the workers as much as possible. They are absolutely the enemy of the MAGA movement. Even more than the Democrats, since they’re slowly being converted, but the Koch people just want domination at any price. There’s no negotiating with someone who wants his boot on your neck.
50   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 19, 4:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
Most R's have made a deal with the devil and if they don't dance to the libertarian tune they will see their funding disappear and face a strong heavily funded primary challenge from some one who will.

That is not true, remembering most libertarian of them - Ron Paul. He was redistricted out since they could not whack him in primaries as he was extremely popular in his district despite being a quirky guy. They went as far as making his district semi-blue.

bob2356 says
Big money on both sides very much cares which party is in power. Only big money on the R side has a long term coordinated plan they have been executing for 40 years.

Big money on R side is substantially less than big money on D side. See the picture below. The Masters of Universe actually prefer D's to R's somewhat.

a href="/post/1319527&offset=#comment-1543617">bob2356 says
the big boys on the right going to roll over and let the D's take back the house?


Or Big Boys want D's to take House/Senate and give more money to them.
<
51   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 19, 4:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

zzyzzx says

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms


Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.
52   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 19, 4:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.


Adams was right about Trump, unlike most "pundits". We will see if he keeps being right or has lost his predictive abilities. We do not need to get our underwear in a bunch now, time for that is after elections.
53   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 19, 4:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Right one time is not a statistic.
54   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 19, 4:40pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
Right one time is not a statistic.

Correct, but he went against the predominant school of thought.
55   krc   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 19, 4:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The money is on the Dems - period. If Reps were more motivated, they would spend - but they aren't. Sure - for big national elections, money may not be as important since there is so much "free" press. In smaller house races, however, it is all about marketing a name - which means money money money. So, I still think +3 in the Senate to the Reps because those races are running on state/national level issues. House- GOP barely holds the house by one or two. Someone stated that CA Rep districts will NOT filp to dem because of taxes/car reg - we will see c- but from the latest polling combined with last minute dem money, it will be hard to Rep to hold any of the 6 seats as toss ups in CA. Modesto area./district is key.

I just see Blue states getting Bluer - and that is where the Dems will pick up.
56   Booger   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 19, 4:53pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/17/rush-limbaugh-if-democrats-take-house-they-will-work-force-president-trump-out.
Limbaugh to Hannity: I Don't Trust Polls, GOP Will Hold House, Increase Senate Majority
57   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 19, 4:58pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

krc says
The money is on the Dems - period. If Reps were more motivated, they would spend - but they aren't.


Why should Reps waste money on candidates that will win anyway just because Dems are stupid to waste their money on candidates who are going to lose anyway?

Case in point: Dems have even told Beto he's going to lose and asked him to distribute his $38 million war chest from George Soros to other Dem candidates who are still in the race. Beto outraised Cruz and going to lose. His OWN party has even told him this. Stupid Soros.

krc says
So, I still think +3 in the Senate to the Reps because those races are running on state/national level issues


You just said this is about money. Now you say differently.

And why is governorships and Representatives NOT about state/national issues as well?

krc says
I just see Blue states getting Bluer - and that is where the Dems will pick up.


Oh boy...

You do know that blue states getting bluer does NOT equate to more seats in Congress, right? It just means a lot more wasted votes will be generated because people believe that it will. And when those same people find out otherwise, they get pissed. Which is why the Dems are having their media allies push all kinds of BS about how the Senate is 'undemocratic' (was never meant to be...duh!) and the Electoral College is 'unfair' (what on Earth the EC has to do with midterm elections is beyond me...but then again, I am not a bat shit crazy libtard).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasted_vote
59   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 19, 5:18pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Booger says
Limbaugh to Hannity: I Don't Trust Polls, GOP Will Hold House, Increase Senate Majority

I don't think those two are much better than MSNBC or CNNPC, in some ways they also exude NPC-type qualities
61   Booger   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 19, 5:43pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

https://county10.com/over-12000-wyoming-voters-changed-party-affiliations-between-july-and-september-2018/

Over 12,000 Wyoming voters changed party affiliations between July and September 2018.

12,509 persons in total changed their party affiliation between July 6th and September 20th:

6,057 Democrats changed and registered as Republicans;
4,355 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Republicans;
744 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Democrats;
477 members of the Constitution and Libertarian parties changed and registered as Republicans;
430 Republicans changed and registered as Democrats; and
296 persons of various parties changed and registered as Unaffiliated.
63   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 20, 7:24am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
You should hire a few Right wing moderators.


Perhaps it would be reasonable to have two moderators agree if a comment has to be whacked, one moderator on left and one on right. I have noticed that a few comments that are quite personal do not disappear after being flagged.
64   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 20, 8:46am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Thanks to Democrats, Republicans now have a winning slogan:
65   6rdB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 20, 9:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
For awhile i would flag personal attacks because @Patrick asked us to, i was helping him out. Until they were repeatedly put back up i figured whats the point. Patrick obviously doesn’t care and isn’t even attempting for a level playing field

I flag very, very rarely as often comments are in "gray zone". Most of my flagged comments do disappear, but there were 2-3 cases where blatantly personal attacks re-appeared.
66   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 20, 10:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If it’s in the mod queue and I agree it’s an ad hom, I’ll nuke it as such. If it’s 50/50 I let another mod decide. I never override another mods ad hom marking.
67   Patrick   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 20, 10:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
I flag very, very rarely as often comments are in "gray zone". Most of my flagged comments do disappear, but there were 2-3 cases where blatantly personal attacks re-appeared.


I do need to keep better records. At least now personal attacks are not completely deleted, but just covered, so I do have a record of those and can see that they are all indeed personal attacks and not just differences in politics.
68   TrumpingTits   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 20, 11:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Booger says


Looks like the red wave is sodomizing the blue one. Or is that just my imagination?
69   mell   ignore (2)   2018 Oct 20, 11:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
zzyzzx says

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms


Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.


Yeah but he was right predicting Trump a good chance to win. Let's see how he does this time. Also Adams is not very partisan, he was never a staunch Republican. I suspect he move that way since he makes satirical cartoons and is a somewhat public figure. So in his best self interest he'd be a fool to embrace any of the leftoids identity politics as it may harm or end his career.

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