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51   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 1, 4:32pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
There was no nuclear war with North Korea, Trump's Tough Talk on Trade has produced many concessions on the opposite side with very few if any by the United States- from Europe to Mexico- rather than a "Global Trade War", we have record low unemployment, and record high stock markets, the very opposite of what the Very Serious People predicted, from Krugman on down.


Did you find that EU agreement yet detailing all the concessions that you claim the US got?

It's truly amazing that Trump cultists continue to complain about media as they watch their dear leader lie 50 times a day, and then follow his example by lying on here time after time.
52   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 1, 6:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
MrMagic says


Like predicting the outcome of the Electoral College? How close was Nate there?


And this is another example of someone not understanding how probability works.

It's not smug to state the truth.


Do you even read what you post.

Nate missing his electoral college prediction by over 75 points has nothing to do with "probability". It has to do with making a completely WRONG prediction, which matched all his wrong predictions for that past year.

THAT is the truth.
53   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 1, 6:18pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
Do you even read what you post.

Nate missing his electoral college prediction by over 75 points has nothing to do with "probability". It has to do with making a completely WRONG prediction, which matched all his wrong predictions for that past year.

THAT is the truth.


I'm sorry you don't understand what the 538 graphic is telling you. But, I'd suggest reading the background and explanation--it may help you. Hint-it wasn't a prediction.
55   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 1, 7:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Did you find that EU agreement yet detailing all the concessions that you claim the US got?


Nope, just a public promise by Juncker that was confirmed by subsequent announcements from EU spokespersons as well as other announcements to increase LNG transshipment facilities in Europe specifically for US Imports.

Meanwhile, we have documents where the Iranians are laughing at the Iran Deal and talking about resuming the atomic bomb program the second the very brief inspection period ends. The Obama buttkissing MSM sold the Iran-Deal as a permanent solution to an Iranian Bomb.
56   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 1, 8:03pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
That chart came from Nate's web site the morning of the election. That was his PREDICTION on who was going to win which state, and the E.C. votes that came with it. Sorry that you don't understand the basic operation of how the Electoral College works.


Nope--it wasn't a PREDICTION at all. It was an analysis of the polling data and using that polling data to create a probability of possible results.

I'm sorry you don't know the difference between a model and a prediction.
57   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 1, 8:13pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Nope, just a public promise by Juncker that was confirmed by subsequent announcements from EU spokespersons as well as other announcements to increase LNG transshipment facilities in Europe specifically for US Imports.


So, an empty promise where Europe said they would reduce tariffs if we do. That's the big concession that Trump got? Woo-Hoo. What a dealmaker!!
58   marcus   ignore (10)   2018 Sep 1, 8:17pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
And had the most asskissing press and opaque administration in US History


Yeah, it couldn't possibly be that Trump actually deserves the more negative press he gets.

IF anything, I conclude the opposite as you. We've become so immune to Trumps ignorance and embarrassing bullshit, that he regularly gets away with, or at least is relatively ignored by us for things that would ruin regular politicians. I'm sure he's proud of that, this dangerous situation he's created. Many of us see it for what it is.

As he said himself, he could step out on fifth avenue and shoot someone and his idiot base would not be deterred.
59   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 2, 2:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
So, an empty promise where Europe said they would reduce tariffs if we do. That's the big concession that Trump got? Woo-Hoo. What a dealmaker!!


No, they said they'd give it to us in return for us not following through on plans to retaliate with the big fat tariffs they put on us.

Here's the Joint Statement, officially released by the EU and US in cooperation:
https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/49023/follow-eu-us-joint-statement-25-july-imports-us-soybeans-increase-over-280_en


Compared to July 2017, EU imports of soybeans from the United States are currently up by 283% at 360,000 tonnes;
In terms of the EU's total imports of soybeans the U.S. share is now at 37%, compared to 9% in July 2017;
Imports of soymeal, which are traditionally lower with regards to the U.S., are also on the rise - 185,000 tonnes were imported in July 2018, an increase of 3,337% compared with July 2017;
The U.S. is now supplying 13% of EU soymeal imports compared to 0.3% in July 2017.



Trump's Soybean export growth makes Obama's look tiny. Obama didn't even try to get it up: "We can't we can't, we can't, get it up more than 3%"


If Junker doesn't keep his word, he'll be a helluva liar, as will the EU since it's released multiple papers about how they plan on importing more US LNG.

The moment they don't seem like they're complying, the reciprocal, justly imposed tariffs return.

That's real negotiation. Obama didn't even try to get Trade Up. Why should he? The people who paid for his campaign - and Hillary's in 2016 - didn't care about increasing US exports, only US imports from their assets abroad.

Now, let's do the US-Mexico Agreement? Do you like the 40-45% set aside and the new higher mandatory North American parts requirement for cars?
60   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 2, 2:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
IF anything, I conclude the opposite as you. We've become so immune to Trumps ignorance and embarrassing bullshit, that he regularly gets away with, or at least is relatively ignored by us for things that would ruin regular politicians. I'm sure he's proud of that, this dangerous situation he's created. Many of us see it for what it is.


Stock Market Boom, all time highs. Unemployment, all time lows. Refugees cut back drastically. Consumer Confidence at century highs. Amazing Leadership.

Despite 24-7 bashing on Trump and his policies since Day 1 of the Administration. It's now well past Day 500.

Bouncing back from a horrible recession is easy. Growing the economy beyond that is hard.
61   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 2, 4:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
talking heads spew nothing but hate for the President whom people are gradually becoming more fond of as he makes things better day by day in America.


Speaking of which, check out America's Leading Conspiracy Theorist, Paul Krugman




Yes, the lead NYT Economy Opinionator just suggested that a long standing Senator has been compromised by a Foreign Power.

This isn't Cenk or Thom Hartmann.
62   mell   ignore (3)   2018 Sep 2, 6:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Any homeless bum has more smarts, strength and backbone than Paul Krugsheister. How's the stock market doing, fool? Oh yeah, total calamity.
63   bob2356   ignore (4)   2018 Sep 2, 11:21am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says


Stock Market Boom, all time highs. Unemployment, all time lows. Refugees cut back drastically. Consumer Confidence at century highs. Amazing Leadership.


Unemployment was right at record lows when trump was elected. If trump had went to a monastory and meditated in silence for 18 months unemployment would still be at all time lows.

Yep borrow and spend will do amazing things for the stock market. Odd how the people who were so bitterly opposed to it at the depth of the recession are so enthusiastic at the peak of the economic cycle.

Consumer confidence is lower than 2014 and 2016. But don't let facts screw you up.

64   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 2, 12:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
Consumer confidence is lower than 2014 and 2016. But don't let facts screw you up.



Oh @bob2356

Amazing, you make a statement about Consumer Confidence, then post a chart of Consumer Sentiment... Ha ah Ha Ha ha LOL LOL ROFL LOL

You do know, those are two separate things, right??

Plus, Consumer Confidence is a lot HIGHER than 2014 and 2016.... Ha Ha HA HA , LOL LOL



Oh crap, those pesky FACTS again..

Then, let's touch on Consumer Sentiment, shall we?

That's even HIGHER than 2014 and 2016..... LOL LOL ROFL ... HA Ha Ha ha ha



Ha Ha Ha... don't let those pesky FACTS get in the way of a good delusion..

Folks, you can't make this shit up!!!



65   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Sep 2, 12:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Where did bob go?
66   Misc   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 12:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The biggest difference between the Trump economy and the Obama economy is full time jobs. Yes, the unemployment rate was getting lower under Obama, but they were all part time jobs that were created. Under Trump full time jobs were created and millions of part time jobs became full time jobs. This is what led the increase in confidence.
67   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 7:23am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Trump's Soybean export growth makes Obama's look tiny. Obama didn't even try to get it up: "We can't we can't, we can't, get it up more than 3%"


bwahahahahaha. Is that a joke?? Here is a chart of soybean prices:



So, you are celebrating soybean prices falling like a rock due to the tariffs Trump has instituted as a good thing for US farmers... because Europe is buying a few more of them?? US farmers are getting killed right now. They are losing millions of $$ due to his trade policies. MILLIONS.

Please keep trying to spin this as good.
68   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 7:26am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
If Junker doesn't keep his word, he'll be a helluva liar, as will the EU since it's released multiple papers about how they plan on importing more US LNG.


He doesn't have to "keep his word" because it depends on Trump keeping his. He knows Trump won't follow through so it was an easy statement to make. Which is why he made it.

Europe will import LNG if the price of US LNG is less than other suppliers, just like they're doing with soybeans. Trump accomplished nothing.
69   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 7:36am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Bouncing back from a horrible recession is easy. Growing the economy beyond that is hard.


Oh my lord. This is the epitome of Trump cultist delusion. The truth is the exact opposite.

An economy is like a huge aircraft carrier--it is easy to keep it moving on the same path. Which is what Trump has done. He's made it slightly worse with the horrible tax bill, but has mostly left it on the same track as the previous administration.


But turning an economy around is very difficult. You've got to overcome all the momentum contracting it, but be delicate enough with the changes so that you don't cause it to overheat and end up with high inflation. It's orders of magnitude more difficult.
70   rocketjoe79   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 3, 9:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Trump's Soybean export growth makes Obama's look tiny. Obama didn't even try to get it up: "We can't we can't, we can't, get it up more than 3%"


bwahahahahaha. Is that a joke?? Here is a chart of soybean prices:



So, you are celebrating soybean prices falling like a rock due to the tariffs Trump has instituted as a good thing for US farmers... because Europe is buying a few more of them?? US farmers are getting killed right now. They are losing millions of $$ due to his trade policies. MILLIONS.

Please keep trying to spin this as good.


Are not most farmers really just big business now? The smarter, small farms should have gone to farm-to-table hookups for max profits. Heck, in California, you don't even start being competitive in the milk business until you have at least 3000 head. That's a business, not a family farm. These folk may lose money temporarily, but they'll shift to other crops that make more money. Or, they will idle the land and have the government pay them for it (they still have to pay county taxes on property, too.) When the wine market exploded in California, farmers ripped up nicely producing almond and fruit trees and planted grapes. They wanted to make a killing selling grapes. When the market cratered a few years later from over production, Charles Shaw (Two-Buck Chuck) came in, bought excess grapes, and made some pretty decent wine for cheap. The market speaks.

Don't even get me started on how skewed the system is toward cheese and corn producers. Corn and all of it's byproducts are used in everything, and yet we give the huge farm corporations deals to plant even more corn to make ethanol for "biofuel" when other crops are proven 5x better at making ethanol. ADM lobbies and donates, and the gov't policies and money flow.

People and businesses follow the money, even if the market is grossly skewed by government policies. As always.
71   marcus   ignore (10)   2018 Sep 3, 10:26am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
Yep borrow and spend will do amazing things for the stock market. Odd how the people who were so bitterly opposed to it at the depth of the recession are so enthusiastic at the peak of the economic cycle.


ding ding ding ding ding

++++++++++++++++++
72   marcus   ignore (10)   2018 Sep 3, 10:38am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Misc says
The biggest difference between the Trump economy and the Obama economy is full time jobs. Yes, the unemployment rate was getting lower under Obama, but they were all part time jobs that were created. Under Trump full time jobs were created and millions of part time jobs became full time jobs. This is what led the increase in confidence.


To the extent this is happening, it's probably more due to the stage of the cycle than it its to any Trump policies. If anything, Trumps trade policies will ultimately be a negative for jobs compared to if Trump had not been President.

https://www.axios.com/american-jobs-affected-trump-trade-war-tariffs-china-7606bcbe-1759-4403-addd-760c36209933.html

I guess you can give Trump credit for not killing this amazing growth cycle. But it's not that he hasn't tried really hard to kill it. But his stupid trade policies can't overpower the effects of the huge spending and tax cuts. Not yet anyway.

Whoopeeeee
73   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 12:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
bwahahahahaha. Is that a joke?? Here is a chart of soybean prices:



No, but this unsourced, undated chart is.
74   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 12:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
bwahahahahaha. Is that a joke?? Here is a chart of soybean prices:


Interesting Joey, when you bring up that WHOLE chart, with time lines, it's amazing what the TRUTH is...


LeonDurham says
So, you are celebrating soybean prices falling like a rock due to the tariffs Trump has instituted as a good thing for US farmers.



When did prices start FALLING like a rock?

When was Obama President?

Oops.... Narrative destroyed...


75   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 3, 1:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well, I guess I don't have to respond much, since others posted some amazing charts to put things in perspective.

It's stunning how people are attempting to talk down these unbelievably good times, while acting like a sluggish recovery from a severe recession was an amazing feat when it is quite routine.
76   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 3, 1:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says

He doesn't have to "keep his word" because it depends on Trump keeping his. He knows Trump won't follow through so it was an easy statement to make. Which is why he made it.

Europe will import LNG if the price of US LNG is less than other suppliers, just like they're doing with soybeans. Trump accomplished nothing.


Do you understand how commodity pricing works?
77   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 3:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Well, I guess I don't have to respond much, since others posted some amazing charts to put things in perspective.

It's stunning how people are attempting to talk down these unbelievably good times, while acting like a sluggish recovery from a severe recession was an amazing feat when it is quite routine.


So, Ironman is now your authority? My how the mighty have fallen. Of course soybean prices vary year to year based on weather and yield, but the chart I posted shows the drop due to the tariffs. I thought anyone would be able to realize the difference...


TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Do you understand how commodity pricing works?


Yes, do you?
78   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 4:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Of course soybean prices vary year to year based on weather and yield, but the chart I posted shows the drop due to the tariffs. I thought anyone would be able to realize the difference...



Oh really... now we're at prices dropping based on weather and yield during Obama years, but during Trump years, it's because of tariffs? Really?

Do you realize how stupid that sounds? It makes your unsourced, undated chart and your narrative even more dishonest.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
It's stunning how people are attempting to talk down these unbelievably good times,


Absolutely..

Just ANOTHER example of major TDS..
79   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 4:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
Oh really... now we're at prices dropping based on weather and yield during Obama years, but during Trump years, it's because of tariffs? Really?

Do you realize how stupid that sounds? It makes your unsourced, undated chart and your narrative even more dishonest.


It only sounds stupid to people who live in Trump cultist fairy land. Those of us in the real world can analyze data and attribute cause fairly easily.
80   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 4:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
MrMagic says
Oh really... now we're at prices dropping based on weather and yield during Obama years, but during Trump years, it's because of tariffs? Really?

Do you realize how stupid that sounds? It makes your unsourced, undated chart and your narrative even more dishonest.


It only sounds stupid to people who live in Trump cultist fairy land. Those of us in the real world can analyze data and attribute cause fairly easily.


Wow...

There are no words...

Folks, you just can't make this crap up.....
81   CBOEtrader   ignore (6)   2018 Sep 3, 4:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Falling food prices?!

What a monster!!
82   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 4:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says

Wow...

There are no words...

Folks, you just can't make this crap up.....


Truth hurts, doesn't it?
83   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 4:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
Falling food prices?!

What a monster!!


It sucks if you're in the business of making and exporting food, like the US is.
84   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 5:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
It sucks if you're in the business of making and exporting food, like the US is.


Funny, you weren't complaining about that in 2012 - 2015 when Obama was President and soy prices were crashing.

Why was that?
85   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 5:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
MrMagic says

Wow...

There are no words...

Folks, you just can't make this crap up.....


Truth hurts, doesn't it?


Don't know..

I'm still waiting for you to actually post some truths, instead of dishonest charts.
86   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 5:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says

Funny, you weren't complaining about that in 2012 - 2015 when Obama was President and soy prices were crashing.

Why was that?


Because the cause was different. If prices are down because (your) supply is up, that's a much better problem than if price is down because tariffs have driven down demand. In one case, profits are still good because you're selling more product. In the other profits are way down because you're selling less product and prices are down.
87   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 3, 6:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Because the cause was different. If prices are down because (your) supply is up,


OK, go and prove the prices dropped because supply was up in the 2012 - 2015 period.

Go ahead, back up your B.S. I guarantee you can't and won't do that.
88   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2018 Sep 3, 6:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm sorry you don't know the difference between a model and a prediction.

A model that cannot predict is useless.
89   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 3, 8:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says

A model that cannot predict is useless.


Yep, but the best models give probabilities of events happening.
90   CornPoptheOriginalGangster   ignore (5)   2018 Sep 3, 8:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says

So, Ironman is now your authority? My how the mighty have fallen.


I'm sorry, did Ironman collect the data and build the charts, or did he simply provide the images and links from respectable sources?

Thanks, Mr. Magic.

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