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Is Miami, FL a good investment yet?

By Michael Cooke follow Michael Cooke   2012 Sep 30, 2:58pm 12,170 views   34 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Specifically Brickell, Miami FL.

I visited this area on business 2 years ago. Absolutely loved it. Everything is brand new. The area looks extremely clean and business oriented. Just how I like it. The majority of the highrise condominiums appear to have been completed in 2005-2007. However some are still incomplete. The local area/infrastructure is very condensed and the local economy is centralized around International Banking.

I've always considered condo's to be a suckers bet - because of the HOA dues. However the point is to rent it for a return. I noticed allot of young looking professionals in this area. And according to statistics the vast majority of these young professionals rent. Right now the International Banking sector in Miami is flat. But who knows where it could go.

Has anyone heard about the prices in Miami recently? As I understood it, they suffered from one of the largest bubbles in Florida.

Have the prices in Miami hit rock bottom yet? Are there any signs of life in the Miami housing market recently?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brickell

#housing

1   37108605   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 30, 8:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WHAT a commercial. Only problem? There are so many empty units in Miami Beach I could live in one a day for a year and never be in the same building.

2   Raw   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 1, 2:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I visited Miami in 2008 to check out the real estate, which at that time was crashing. Those beautiful buildings you see now sell well below construction cost, making it an excellent buy.
Problem is....everyone thinks its a great time to buy too, which makes it pretty hard to find anything in the prime locations.

3   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 1, 2:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

For a decent 2/2 condo in Brickell the asking prices are 500k+. Doesn't seem like a crash to me.

4   Raw   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 1, 8:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

War says

Raw says

sell well below construction cost

Which is what?

$400.00 per sq ft for these magnificent skyscrapers....I think.

6   Raw   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 2, 3:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

War says

Raw says

sell well below construction cost

Now let's hear it. What are construction costs.

$400.00 per sq. ft :)

7   BayArea   ignore (1)   2012 Oct 2, 4:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Those are beautiful pictures.

There are just as many less beautiful pictures of Miami that you forgot to post.

If you are going to throw your money at something, at least be fair to yourself about it ;-)

8   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 2, 4:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says

Those are beautiful pictures.

There are just as many less beautiful pictures of Miami that you forgot to post.

If you are going to throw your money at something, at least be fair to yourself about it ;-)

Your 100% right about that. Some of those areas I would not feel safe in without a conceal and carry permit.

I only care about the good areas with good people most likely to be insulated. After living in Los Angeles I've noticed certain communities stand out as safe, clean, crime free, feel good and desirable. As a result the Real Estate values in those communities skyrocket in appreciation, thereby protecting it.

They are surrounded by trash so the cream rises to the top.

9   BayArea   ignore (1)   2012 Oct 2, 10:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So true.

The calm, unviolent, unconfrontational way to steer clear of the riff-raff is to price them out.

C'est la vie

The additional cost of not living near riff-raff is hard to quantify but that cost exists and it's often times significant. This fact also coincides with why rent:buy ratios are so low for high end real estate compared to low end real estate. Rich folks are willing to pay much more than their house is worth (at least according to rent valuation) to be safe and quiet.

10   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 2, 10:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Michael Cooke says

Is Miami, FL a good investment yet?

Not especially. Not yet, anyway.

11   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 2, 2:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says

The calm, unviolent, unconfrontational way to steer clear of the riff-raff is to price them out.

This is pretty simplistic. I know a very popular stripper who makes more than my over-educated engineer daughter. Most whitebread tightasses would probably consider her riff-raff, (even though she isn't -- she just likes to party a little too much with dicey characters), but pricing her out of your tony enclave just isn't an option.

12   BayArea   ignore (1)   2012 Oct 2, 3:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Your stripper is an exception to the rule. There are exceptions to most rules but an exception here and there doesn't change the bet.

13   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 2, 4:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says

Your stripper is an exception to the rule. There are exceptions to most rules but an exception here and there doesn't change the bet.

She's not *my* stripper, and she is not exactly an outlier; people do whatever they can to survive at a standard of living that they feel they deserve. No matter where you choose to collect your mail, you'll be sharing the area with denizens of the black market, be they dealers, pimps, prostitutes, (which the BA is rife with), war profiteers, traffickers, car salesman or Amway salesman -- most of which don't show up in official census data.

Besides, I'd rather live around poor people, (and I do). Most very rich people are disgusting golf-playing tax cheats who loathe all other people and would fuck you out of the shine on your shoes if they could figure out an angle. The only thing worse than living around them is living around the people who wish they were them.

14   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 2, 4:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JodyChunder says

I know a very popular stripper who makes more than my over-educated engineer daughter. Most whitebread tightasses would probably consider her riff-raff, (even though she isn't -- she just likes to party a little too much with dicey characters), but pricing her out of your tony enclave just isn't an option.

For arguments sake let's assume said stripper is a drug peddling coke addict who escorts on the side and frequently parties with criminals. That element is present in virtually any community - with an ultra low percentage in the enclave.

Also the fact she is a stripper means she is marketability hot. And since nobody knows she is stripper - she's just adding to the scenery. :)

15   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 2, 4:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Michael Cooke says

with an ultra low percentage in the enclave.

I think you might be surprised...there's usually much worse than my stripper example in said enclaves.

16   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 2, 4:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JodyChunder says

No matter where you choose to collect your mail, you'll be sharing the area with denizens of the black market, be they dealers, pimps, prostitutes, (which the BA is rife with), war profiteers, traffickers, car salesman or Amway salesman

You forgot Realtors :)

17   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 3, 10:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Make sure the HOA isn't going broke. Also check out http://condovultures.com

I live in Fort Lauderdale and want to move north, IF I were to want to stay in Florida at all. Farther and farther away from Miami as possible. I've been in every state except Alaska and I would prefer ANY state over Florida. I sold my condo last year and condos in that building have declined 30% since then.

But I guess some people like it. South Beach is slightly interesting. But do you speak spanish? Do you like opressively hot humid weather? Insane rude drivers. Unfriendly people. Old farts? Mosquitoes? Huge roaches that fly called palmetto bugs? Tourists and traffic when the weather finally gets cooler?
There should be bargains here because it is hell. Put it this way my friend came from hell #2 Phoenix and she lasted only four months.

---

18   david1   ignore (1)   2012 Oct 3, 11:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

South Florida has Phoenix weather plus a 3pm rainstorm everyday, LA douchebag quotient and New York City hospitality. At times you also get Atlanta traffic to look forward to.

I lived there from 2004-2010 and will never, EVER move back.

Hey, the beach is the best in the US though...

19   Tenpoundbass   ignore (15)   2012 Oct 4, 12:35am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

david1 says

I lived there from 2004-2010 and will never, EVER move back.

Congratulations you lived here in the Corrosion age.
Ironically NYC became the best city in the world, about the time, Miami(south Florida) was peaking in the douche factor. All of the jerks that gave NYC a bad rap for rudeness and in-hospitality, moved to south Florida and brought their "Me Me Me gimme gimme gimme" mentality.
Things are turning around, since those douche creeps lost it all speculation on RE though.

If there is a positive side to all of this. I love NY now.

20   edvard2   ignore (1)   2012 Oct 4, 1:00am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Houses don't make good investments to start with.

21   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 8:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says

There are just as many less beautiful pictures of Miami that you forgot to post.

Like lovely Overtown just a stones throw away from 800k condos.

22   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 8:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ELC says

BayArea says

There are just as many less beautiful pictures of Miami that you forgot to post.

Like lovely Overtown just a stones throw away from 800k condos.

Yes but they are priced out. They can't get in. I've seen this geographical situation in Los Angeles. Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes are more than a stones throw away from Compton and Carson however you rarely see these types of people in Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes. And at the end of the day they take their undesirable presence and bad habits with them.

The Brickell area is glamorous and very business oriented. It's protected. There is no way Overtown residents or any of the others can get in. They are priced out.

23   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 10:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JodyChunder says

Besides, I'd rather live around poor people, (and I do). Most very rich people are disgusting golf-playing tax cheats who loathe all other people

I wouldn't. Poor people tend to have lots of juvenile deliquents. Also if a neighbor has roaches you end up fighting off their roaches.

24   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 10:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Michael Cooke says

It's protected. There is no way Overtown residents or any of the others can get in. They are priced out.

That's beside the point. The crack addicts are begging for money on the streets right in front of these condos. South Beach too and they're very pushy.

25   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 4, 1:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ELC says

I wouldn't. Poor people tend to have lots of juvenile deliquents. Also if a neighbor has roaches you end up fighting off their roaches.

But they don't have impunity, like the juvenile brats of the rich and well-connected. The Juves around here aren't a hassle because I see right through them. The last little shit that spat on my car and called me a fuckface is now working in my tinting and detailing shop, pulling down some decent pay. I give him a small bonus for every book he finishes reading from the 800's section. He's gotten two bonuses so far.

The worst blight to any human spirit is the humiliation of poverty and so these kids try to fix it via the path of least resistance, which is usually crime. I try to help prevent that anytime I can by putting their asses to work.

Roaches and rats are in the best neighborhoods, BTW.

http://www.laweekly.com/2008-07-31/news/rathouse-of-the-palisades/

26   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 2:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You're talking about exceptions to the rules. I'm glad your such a nice person, to give a punk stranger who spit on your car and cursed at you a job. However most people wouldn't do this.

Right. There was a house in Pacific Palisades where two deeply disturbed women lived who belonged in a state mental hospital.

Chances are they inherited their house and paid $20 a month in property tax thanks to Prop 13 in California. This allowed them to remain in a house they would have been forced to leave otherwise. And I wonder what type of neighborhood they would have moved to.

What your talking about are exceptions to the rules.

27   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 4, 3:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Michael Cooke says

What your talking about are exceptions to the rules.

What I'm talking about is that there are no rules. The idea that you can just move to an overpriced neighborhood and price-out all the cretins is facile, at very best.

28   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 3:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ELC says

That's beside the point. The crack addicts are begging for money on the streets right in front of these condos. South Beach too and they're very pushy.

True. But this applies to almost every metropolitan area. There there is nothing you can do except not give them any money. This will make them go away.

I'd always believed that if someone was in a position were they have to beg a stranger for money you should always give it to them no questions asked no matter what. They are destitute and need food.

Then I moved to Los Angeles. I would have the same bum ask for money in areas I frequented. I realized most were there due to their own choices addicted to drugs or did not want to work etc. And the more you subsidized something the more you encourage it.

And since I don't want these people in my area mucking up the scenery by walking around I refuse to give them money.

The exception being someone with a mental disorder who is not there because of their own fault.

For example there is a guy in his 30's or 40's standing on the corner of 2nd and PCH holding a sign that says "Vietnam Vet".

29   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 4, 8:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Michael Cooke says

For example there is a guy in his 30's or 40's standing on the corner of 2nd and PCH holding a sign that says "Vietnam Vet".

And you believe him? If it's true he should be getting plenty of money. My uncle does. He even get's an extra check for his PTSD even though he never saw combat. Maybe he was dishonorably discharged if he is indeed telling the truth.

30   Michael Cooke   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 5, 5:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ELC says

And you believe him?

Yes I believe him. I lack the ability to do basic math. What years did the Vietnam war occur again?

31   ohomen171   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 5, 6:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Miami attracts international investors like crazy. I think that the local market there is healing and is an interesting investment possibility.

32   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 5, 8:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ohomen171 says

Miami attracts international investors like crazy. I think that the local market there is healing and is an interesting investment possibility.

Could be, I guess, if you willingly ignore every other macroeconometric and go with gut feeling and emotion.

33   ELC   ignore (0)   2012 Oct 5, 9:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JodyChunder says

Miami attracts international investors like crazy. I think that the local market there is healing and is an interesting investment possibility.

Could be, I guess, if you willingly ignore every other macroeconometric and go with gut feeling and emotion.

Condo, Townhouse Shortsales Tumble By 24% In South Florida In Q3 2012

http://www.condovultures.com/News/ViewArticle/tabid/77/ArticleId/85180/Condo-Townhouses-Shortsales-Tumble-By-24-In-South-Florida-In-Q3-2012.aspx

34   JodyChunder   ignore (3)   2012 Oct 6, 5:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The SFHs I've seen that were worth half a damn in Miami and Miami Beach were still brushing up against 400 pr sq ft. That's no big bargain for ANYWHERE in Floriduh.


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